MLB · resolved market
Will the Mets and Dodgers combine for 8 or more runs scored?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0ab75beb6cb97f086b68bab5ad8592402294e867191ecd6272669f32b0d01e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,890
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,196
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,890 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Under | 48c | 3,950$1,896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,895.77 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked Over | 53c | 3,578$1,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,677.56 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +6.6wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Under | 47c | 2,900$1,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,357.39 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked Over | 51c | 1,170$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.91 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 50c | 1,150$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.87 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Over | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7d…4feabacked Over | 52c | 827.45$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.18 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb033…bedbbacked Over | 54c | 700$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322 | 133 | 59.4%79 W · 54 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…7f85backed Over | 60c | 615.18$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.07 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Under | 49c | 599.99$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.99 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa660…3ebbbacked Over | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Over | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x531a…da3cbacked Under | 50c | 312.41$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.41 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…2794backed Under | 45c | 300$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04a…824ebacked Under | 50c | 270$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb626…e748backed Over | 50c | 270$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Under | 49c | 199.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ff…e213backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddfb…c994backed Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b3…c940backed Over | 60c | 84.82$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.93 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16af…9dedbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x656e…0a8bbacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Mets and Dodgers combine for 8 or more runs scored?this page
- Will the Mets or Dodgers win Game 3 of the NLCS?Dodgers won
- Will there be at least 1 run scored in the first inning?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.