MLB · resolved market
Will the Mets or Dodgers win Game 3 of the NLCS?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4deb17b3cb3fa7f9606f8c97d05d8ea4fa402ed7a40fe5c4a49da1f0b30ba258
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dodgersof Mets, Dodgers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $131,143
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $105,852
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $131,143 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked Dodgers | 52c | 70,250$36,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,893.91 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…3f84backed Mets | 48c | 60,350$28,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,968 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Mets | 4c | 30,681$1,343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,342.85 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Mets | 42c | 8,785$3,726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,726.41 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Dodgers | 70c | 3,564$2,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,071.16 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x527c…5f6cbacked Mets | 49c | 2,262$1,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,108.61 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69bb…fcb2backed Dodgers | 51c | 2,262$1,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,108.38 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…d82cbacked Mets | 51c | 1,743$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.46 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Mets | 28c | 1,429$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…c2f8backed Dodgers | 54c | 1,418$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.36 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e71…3838backed Mets | 28c | 1,200$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.34per pick | 42cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Mets | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb033…bedbbacked Dodgers | 77c | 1,000$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 133 | 59.4%79 W · 54 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25e…0aa5backed Dodgers | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 145 | 49.7%72 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Mets | 48c | 938.5$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.42 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7d…4feabacked Mets | 51c | 872.99$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.72 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Mets | 49c | 805.02$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.46 | 540 | 48.3%261 W · 279 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cd…238dbacked Mets | 54c | 722.82$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.32 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Mets | 49c | 600$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57fa…51c4backed Mets | 43c | 547.92$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.35 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Dodgers | 48c | 545.28$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.55 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf19…4b21backed Mets | 51c | 486.53$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Dodgers | 49c | 399.99$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe477…bb6cbacked Dodgers | 51c | 393.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Dodgers | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 133 | 54.9%73 W · 60 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc42e…edbdbacked Mets | 31c | 341.1$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.74 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…2193backed Dodgers | 50c | 336.3$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.15 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3a…16fbbacked Dodgers | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5cec…1e3dbacked Mets | 37c | 224.74$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked Mets | 49c | 205$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -39%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3462…d3d2backed Mets | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa660…3ebbbacked Dodgers | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Dodgers | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc465…fcfbbacked Dodgers | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Dodgers | 55c | 195$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.75 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…3727backed Dodgers | 51c | 149.96$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.48 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddcf…d49ebacked Dodgers | 51c | 145$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.75 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed Dodgers | 53c | 141.51$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.51 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0b…fb5fbacked Dodgers | 49c | 104$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a4…353bbacked Mets | 48c | 102.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5992…26c4backed Dodgers | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa24…3d23backed Mets | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbb…a8fbbacked Dodgers | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…928fbacked Dodgers | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5be…8728backed Dodgers | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddfb…c994backed Dodgers | 51c | 97.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.15 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e2ebbacked Dodgers | 51c | 70.96$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.77 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…9cf9backed Dodgers | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e2…2ed0backed Dodgers | 54c | 55.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 188 | 52.7%99 W · 89 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Dodgers | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d56…d62ebacked Mets | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd13…a813backed Mets | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f3…e130backed Dodgers | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed Dodgers | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…bcd7backed Dodgers | 51c | 45.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b96…f366backed Dodgers | 52c | 42.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +27%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x096e…8a38backed Mets | 50c | 42.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2686…7a67backed Dodgers | 51c | 41.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…2794backed Mets | 46c | 37.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1413…4bddbacked Mets | 51c | 35.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a2…cd8abacked Mets | 50c | 34.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbea9…02f9backed Dodgers | 52c | 34.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…93c4backed Dodgers | 51c | 34.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc0…e009backed Dodgers | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x778a…1a6dbacked Dodgers | 70c | 32.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2206…943dbacked Dodgers | 52c | 31.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb1…b2c2backed Mets | 50c | 31.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1872…1962backed Mets | 50c | 30.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5138…1d4dbacked Dodgers | 51c | 30.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacb…774abacked Dodgers | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadca…f146backed Mets | 51c | 26.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e6…ec7ebacked Mets | 50c | 25.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…e010backed Dodgers | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…eccabacked Dodgers | 52c | 24.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c91…0505backed Mets | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.44per pick | 64cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Mets or Dodgers win Game 3 of the NLCS?this page
- Will the Mets and Dodgers combine for 8 or more runs scored?Over won
- Will there be at least 1 run scored in the first inning?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.