College Football · resolved market
Spread: Arkansas State (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0bb98d341be7ff1633305df77303bdf7940730af809acff0ebfd746f4420454
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Louisianaof Arkansas State, Louisiana
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,187
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,185
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,187 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Louisiana | 57c | 1,476$841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.54 | 290 | 55.2%160 W · 130 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Arkansas State | 43c | 1,378$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.54 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0108…a80fbacked Arkansas State | 44c | 406$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x597a…140dbacked Arkansas State | 44c | 268$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8224…b6c8backed Louisiana | 58c | 237$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2068…548fbacked Arkansas State | 44c | 217$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafb7…834abacked Arkansas State | 44c | 215$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3c…7d56backed Arkansas State | 44c | 206$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x519c…d2d2backed Arkansas State | 44c | 189$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e2…d364backed Louisiana | 58c | 170$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7b…6aaebacked Louisiana | 58c | 169$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28fa…ddacbacked Louisiana | 58c | 163$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d4…48cebacked Louisiana | 58c | 163$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19fb…8a80backed Arkansas State | 44c | 163$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…e050backed Louisiana | 58c | 157$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Louisiana | 57c | 140$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.7 | 262 | 44.3%116 W · 146 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04be…1e0cbacked Louisiana | 58c | 137$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeea…cadebacked Arkansas State | 44c | 136$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e78…3f18backed Louisiana | 58c | 135$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa535…0c83backed Louisiana | 58c | 127$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a31…532cbacked Louisiana | 58c | 120$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94e6…afb9backed Arkansas State | 44c | 115$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…c1ffbacked Louisiana | 58c | 113$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe878…be23backed Louisiana | 58c | 111$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb3…2c5fbacked Arkansas State | 44c | 110$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadf1…afedbacked Louisiana | 58c | 103$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53aa…e11dbacked Louisiana | 58c | 102$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c8d…ce8fbacked Louisiana | 58c | 98$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Arkansas State | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe301…c35bbacked Arkansas State | 44c | 80$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cd…b74cbacked Arkansas State | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 258 | 19.8%51 W · 207 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…5e22backed Louisiana | 56c | 68$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Arkansas State | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Arkansas State | 42c | 23.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 244 | 36.9%90 W · 154 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arkansas State (-3.5)this page
- Louisiana vs. Arkansas StateLouisiana won
- Louisiana vs. Arkansas State: O/U 53.5Over won
- O/U 54.5Over won
- Spread: Arkansas State (-2.5)Louisiana won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.