College Football · resolved market
Spread: Arkansas State (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b24fa0c91d161068e48bca4fa03f2856fb4a1568b9d8dfea914da2b1dad12eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Louisianaof Arkansas State, Louisiana
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $122,824
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $122,699
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $122,824 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Arkansas State | 51c | 35,000$17,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,849.99 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Arkansas State | 52c | 30,609$15,810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,810.47 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Louisiana | 49c | 30,108$14,829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,279.04 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Louisiana | 48c | 20,088$9,642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,446.01 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Arkansas State | 53c | 18,744$9,855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,855.09 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Louisiana | 49c | 10,968$5,374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,593.74 | 327 | 45.6%149 W · 178 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Louisiana | 49c | 10,100$4,944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,156.11 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Louisiana | 49c | 9,857$4,830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,027.14 | 118 | 51.7%61 W · 57 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Arkansas State | 50c | 8,889$4,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,444.5 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Louisiana | 48c | 8,433$4,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,415.73 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Louisiana | 49c | 6,096$3,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,093.77 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Louisiana | 47c | 5,083$2,389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,694.19 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Arkansas State | 51c | 5,010$2,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,555 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe7…2f3cbacked Louisiana | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,600 | 112 | 48.2%54 W · 58 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Arkansas State | 52c | 4,500$2,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,340 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Louisiana | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,040 | 115 | 41.7%48 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Arkansas State | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,080 | 178 | 37.6%67 W · 111 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Arkansas State | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Arkansas State | 50c | 1,446$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.91 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Louisiana | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.41 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…acabbacked Louisiana | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Arkansas State | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6d…1ba1backed Louisiana | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Arkansas State | 53c | 605.91$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Louisiana | 53c | 509.75$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.77 | 262 | 44.3%116 W · 146 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Arkansas State | 46c | 450$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.7 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd368…1889backed Arkansas State | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Arkansas State | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc7…cf77backed Arkansas State | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Louisiana | 48c | 253$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.53 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Arkansas State | 51c | 250$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…fcf3backed Louisiana | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…ce7abacked Louisiana | 50c | 199.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.99 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Arkansas State | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50bb…9aa6backed Arkansas State | 52c | 125$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd53…a861backed Louisiana | 47c | 106$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.18 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Louisiana | 21c | 102$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.68 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x646c…3210backed Arkansas State | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4b…a250backed Arkansas State | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Arkansas State | 52c | 54.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Arkansas State | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 241 | 57.3%138 W · 103 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed Arkansas State | 79c | 38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…aeb8backed Arkansas State | 53c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97de…15eabacked Arkansas State | 53c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Louisiana | 50c | 25.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 268 | 46.3%124 W · 144 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…9f5abacked Arkansas State | 53c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd4…b2d2backed Arkansas State | 51c | 20.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arkansas State (-2.5)this page
- Louisiana vs. Arkansas StateLouisiana won
- Louisiana vs. Arkansas State: O/U 53.5Over won
- O/U 54.5Over won
- Spread: Arkansas State (-3.5)Louisiana won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.