TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Game Handicap: LGD (-1.5) vs PlayTime (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
PlayTimeof LGD Gaming, PlayTime
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,507
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,547

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,507 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed LGD Gaming36c1,667$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed PlayTime67c1,338$897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4411,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed PlayTime59c996$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.3626550.6%134 W · 131 L+12.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed PlayTime64c819.38$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.9829243.2%126 W · 166 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbf3b…0375backed PlayTime64c700$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25212250%61 W · 61 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f9b…efabbacked LGD Gaming38c604.84$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.691050%5 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf20b…e27dbacked LGD Gaming32c600$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19211746.2%54 W · 63 L-0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07f9…1513backed LGD Gaming33c500$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16515147.7%72 W · 79 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e34…4480backed LGD Gaming32c200$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6317737.9%67 W · 110 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-7.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd9c9…6686backed PlayTime62c194.97$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.972850%14 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x294b…22d2backed PlayTime60c166.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.6715648.7%76 W · 80 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc182…1339backed LGD Gaming36c166.67$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6028846.5%134 W · 154 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed LGD Gaming39c142.47$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5586451.7%447 W · 417 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a4f…9b0cbacked PlayTime75c133.97$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.978250%41 W · 41 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked PlayTime62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3826445.1%119 W · 145 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ec9…1873backed LGD Gaming36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3619839.4%78 W · 120 L-0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1943…1561backed LGD Gaming37c55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3545352.1%236 W · 217 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5f5…2d72backed PlayTime63c55$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.35757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.22per pick35cpaid+45.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed LGD Gaming26c54.16$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3178516.6%130 W · 655 L-135.4wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-66.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed PlayTime60c41.46$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.5823149.4%114 W · 117 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77de…e67abacked LGD Gaming29c39.23$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2814848%71 W · 77 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6d8…fd15backed PlayTime70c28.57$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e6d…2671backed PlayTime60c20.4$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1639559%233 W · 162 L+18.3wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.