Fifa International · resolved market
Amad Diallo: 1+ goals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0d4ad9300ae541ef7afd69f8a73abb69ad7c78ccad8ff03937ff61412b9459c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,212
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,574
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,212 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Yes | 18c | 1,278$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 454 | 28%127 W · 327 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84b2…f1dabacked Yes | 17c | 582.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 303 | 21.5%65 W · 238 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23d7…101ebacked Yes | 13c | 396.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 127 | 38.6%49 W · 78 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8614…4d84backed Yes | 18c | 279$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…d10dbacked Yes | 19c | 257.89$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 145 | 28.3%41 W · 104 L | -9.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f9…2233backed Yes | 19c | 184.21$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…9b40backed Yes | 19c | 184.21$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa458…24dfbacked Yes | 18c | 135.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bab…6832backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4e…d20dbacked Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcff…4f4bbacked Yes | 15c | 91.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3650…3359backed Yes | 16c | 80.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -86.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ba…10d5backed Yes | 18c | 59.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Amad Diallo: 1+ goalsthis page
- Amad Diallo: 1+ assistsNo won
- Amad Diallo: 2+ goalsNo won
- Ange-Yoan Bonny: 1+ goalsNo won
- Deniz Undav: 1+ goalsYes won
- Deniz Undav: 3+ goalsNo won
- Florian Wirtz: 1+ assistsNo won
- Florian Wirtz: 1+ goalsNo won
- Florian Wirtz: 2+ goalsNo won
- Florian Wirtz: 3+ goalsNo won
- Jamal Musiala: 1+ assistsNo won
- Jamal Musiala: 1+ goalsNo won
- Jamal Musiala: 2+ goalsNo won
- Jamal Musiala: 3+ goalsNo won
- Kai Havertz: 1+ assistsNo won
- Kai Havertz: 1+ goalsNo won
- Kai Havertz: 2+ goalsNo won
- Kai Havertz: 2+ shotsYes won
- Kai Havertz: 3+ goalsNo won
- Leroy Sané: 1+ goalsNo won
- Leroy Sané: 2+ goalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.