College Football · resolved market
Will Miami beat Louisville?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe10bb1c98f18449680da98896491e46ac6670f1825cc9c2461bcbfee5a54e102
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miamiof Miami, Louisville
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,836
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,650
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,836 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Louisville | 36c | 1,781$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.36 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Louisville | 11c | 1,438$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.37 | 242 | 29.3%71 W · 171 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Miami | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 398 | 47.7%190 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed7…537abacked Miami | 66c | 605.95$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.02 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed3e…21a8backed Louisville | 32c | 500$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Louisville | 15c | 479.07$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.06 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked Louisville | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c5…e38abacked Miami | 69c | 397.38$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.19 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…1de4backed Louisville | 11c | 362.58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 52 | 9.6%5 W · 47 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Louisville | 34c | 276.24$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.91 | 231 | 45.5%105 W · 126 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa45…0eb0backed Louisville | 20c | 226.34$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…acd1backed Miami | 65c | 215.76$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.76 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5523…51e9backed Louisville | 22c | 200$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3552…2efebacked Louisville | 30c | 187.93$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Miami | 66c | 149.06$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.17 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…d834backed Louisville | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a5…b94fbacked Louisville | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Miami | 65c | 81.91$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.67 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3b…e948backed Miami | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87c4…490ebacked Miami | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 70cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2376…30f5backed Miami | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Miami | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 188 | 58%109 W · 79 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b23…8278backed Miami | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Louisville | 35c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Miami | 80c | 43.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2c…3ce8backed Miami | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47fa…4bbebacked Louisville | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57fa…51c4backed Miami | 70c | 28.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae6f…7399backed Miami | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -6.0wins | -0.33per pick | 61cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…e010backed Miami | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Miami beat Louisville?this page
- Will there be 61 or more combined points scored?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.