Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Heidenheim win on 2025-11-29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1223375b6d384bf3c1f3a26d57f7fb126da096afbef26a35515ec5c288f9a68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,808
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,722
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,808 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x723c…01ebbacked Yes | 18c | 3,080$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,529.72 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd2…b035backed Yes | 1c | 2,017$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,986.91 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +1,047.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 16c | 1,512$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,270.08 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Yes | 16c | 1,308$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,097.64 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +5.4wins | +0.23per pick | 32cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Yes | 16c | 1,076$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902.41 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9024…a444backed Yes | 2c | 1,005$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$982.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +1,314.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked Yes | 11c | 998.23$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$888.43 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 17c | 987.92$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.59 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 71c | 722$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.26 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 17c | 500$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415 | 150 | 24%36 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 71c | 318.82$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.52 | 226 | 69%156 W · 70 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Yes | 14c | 300$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 16c | 299$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.16 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35a1…2254backed Yes | 15c | 245$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae9…74acbacked No | 24c | 200$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 16c | 193.31$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.38 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.5 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 16c | 140.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.22 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x711d…4e8dbacked Yes | 16c | 131.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9de2…3adbbacked Yes | 18c | 127.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.78 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ba…134ebacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.11 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…f80abacked Yes | 18c | 88.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.55 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 13c | 88.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…28a5backed Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.33 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Yes | 17c | 79.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.1 | 149 | 42.3%63 W · 86 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbd…c4e4backed Yes | 17c | 70$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +84.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 16c | 64.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.59 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim win on 2025-11-29?this page
- Will Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Heidenheim end in a draw?No won
- Will Union Berlin win on 2025-11-29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.