Tennis · resolved market
ITF Nottingham: Katja Wiersholm vs Mingge Xu
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe152ec0bdc463d8a5842b71fe082e8e0d2982cf2c2b5bd7d5015805dd7b79f3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Katja Wiersholmof Katja Wiersholm, Mingge Xu
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,673
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,312
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,673 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Katja Wiersholm | 57c | 18,219$10,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,834.85 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Mingge Xu | 45c | 10,761$4,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,799.93 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef29…2f1ebacked Mingge Xu | 2c | 5,404$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.33 | 1,111 | 45.3%503 W · 608 L | -35.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Mingge Xu | 80c | 2,432$1,946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,945.6 | 1,148 | 53%608 W · 540 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Mingge Xu | 55c | 1,638$907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$907.13 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Mingge Xu | 43c | 1,320$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.76 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…805fbacked Mingge Xu | 30c | 1,211$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.98 | 365 | 48.2%176 W · 189 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Mingge Xu | 19c | 978.71$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.48 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Mingge Xu | 25c | 812.18$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2002…a75ebacked Mingge Xu | 75c | 555.58$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.34 | 314 | 43.6%137 W · 177 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Katja Wiersholm | 80c | 540.38$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.86 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Mingge Xu | 29c | 471.31$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.57 | 1,681 | 50%841 W · 840 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Katja Wiersholm | 65c | 446.1$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.95 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f34…ed6abacked Katja Wiersholm | 64c | 396.69$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.12 | 397 | 51.4%204 W · 193 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Katja Wiersholm | 64c | 362.55$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.13 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Katja Wiersholm | 21c | 277.69$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.07 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57e7…84e9backed Katja Wiersholm | 38c | 192.58$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.28 | 226 | 38.9%88 W · 138 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Mingge Xu | 12c | 185.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3,068 | 57.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L | +173.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Mingge Xu | 28c | 182.14$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Mingge Xu | 37c | 176.93$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.3 | 788 | 57.1%450 W · 338 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Mingge Xu | 28c | 160.71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,356 | 38.3%520 W · 836 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa943…bcbebacked Katja Wiersholm | 11c | 144.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.69 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Mingge Xu | 28c | 142.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…5e75backed Mingge Xu | 24c | 137.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 942 | 55.8%526 W · 416 L | +19.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Mingge Xu | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 925 | 54.8%507 W · 418 L | +15.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67a1…1c91backed Mingge Xu | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 203 | 60.1%122 W · 81 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x293c…dcbabacked Mingge Xu | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 360 | 53.1%191 W · 169 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…039bbacked Mingge Xu | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,008 | 38.3%386 W · 622 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1e…4754backed Mingge Xu | 36c | 78.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 434 | 44.9%195 W · 239 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Katja Wiersholm | 18c | 69.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.94 | 923 | 55.8%515 W · 408 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eef…5275backed Mingge Xu | 78c | 64.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 363 | 78.2%284 W · 79 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 77cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8920…9c0cbacked Katja Wiersholm | 62c | 59.91$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 293 | 47.4%139 W · 154 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…3a1bbacked Mingge Xu | 36c | 57.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 273 | 63.4%173 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Mingge Xu | 60c | 56.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 1,880 | 48.5%912 W · 968 L | +8.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked Katja Wiersholm | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 1,025 | 54%554 W · 471 L | +37.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Mingge Xu | 23c | 51.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce8…4dd6backed Mingge Xu | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 579 | 50.9%295 W · 284 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Mingge Xu | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Mingge Xu | 58c | 36.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bdc…e345backed Katja Wiersholm | 43c | 35.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 169 | 43.8%74 W · 95 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Mingge Xu | 59c | 23.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Mingge Xu | 47c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 920 | 46.6%429 W · 491 L | -14.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb37…189abacked Mingge Xu | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x061a…5a89backed Mingge Xu | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 521 | 57%297 W · 224 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03bf…24b9backed Katja Wiersholm | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 132 | 76.5%101 W · 31 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Katja Wiersholm | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 1,062 | 42%446 W · 616 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Mingge Xu | 74c | 13.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 788 | 47.5%374 W · 414 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdf…e240backed Katja Wiersholm | 78c | 12.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.