NHL · resolved market
Spread: Ducks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1df009cba177b467461dce7986626e386513bfc10045fd5c072aaf0061a637c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ducksof Ducks, Red Wings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,400
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,359
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,400 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x534a…b7f7backed Red Wings | 70c | 3,204$2,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,242.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda01…8f97backed Ducks | 30c | 2,705$812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,893.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…9678backed Red Wings | 68c | 2,242$1,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,524.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6499…b66cbacked Ducks | 33c | 1,356$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$908.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b9…2d7bbacked Red Wings | 67c | 1,247$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9896…5f41backed Ducks | 32c | 1,225$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ee…d891backed Red Wings | 67c | 1,132$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x193d…5848backed Ducks | 33c | 1,023$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.41 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x403d…ba61backed Ducks | 32c | 1,017$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1761…31cbbacked Ducks | 33c | 936$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa201…c304backed Red Wings | 67c | 925$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2a…f17bbacked Red Wings | 67c | 837$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb850…b580backed Ducks | 33c | 826$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaff…d7cabacked Ducks | 32c | 757$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.76 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +53%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34a0…5b83backed Red Wings | 68c | 755$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f6…f970backed Red Wings | 68c | 754$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3d…d45dbacked Ducks | 32c | 754$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2bd…3ccabacked Ducks | 30c | 499$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 43cpaid | +157.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Red Wings | 4c | 402.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Red Wings | 66c | 256.69$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.42 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked Ducks | 34c | 205.88$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.88 | 158 | 39.9%63 W · 95 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Ducks | 34c | 98.07$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.07 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Red Wings | 66c | 63.56$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.95 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Ducks | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb800…6cecbacked Red Wings | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Red Wings | 67c | 34.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 378 | 47.4%179 W · 199 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Ducks (-1.5)this page
- Red Wings vs. DucksDucks won
- Red Wings vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.