NHL · resolved market
Red Wings vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefe730af525119029af944d91eaf6b3fee0c82531714849bd3495fc8e2ba3566
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,797
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,798
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,797 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf90e…0b56backed Under | 50c | 11,144$5,572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,572.23 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa175…91cbbacked Under | 55c | 10,500$5,775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,775 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8069…22cdbacked Over | 45c | 9,800$4,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,390 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 50c | 8,206$4,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,120.69 | 412 | 46.4%191 W · 221 L | -24.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…be8fbacked Under | 55c | 8,000$4,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x615e…4197backed Under | 55c | 8,000$4,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4052…eb90backed Over | 45c | 6,900$3,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,795 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cf…0e3ebacked Over | 45c | 6,900$3,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,795 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 4,361$2,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,275.6 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…9ad7backed Under | 55c | 4,010$2,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,205.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9b…8275backed Over | 45c | 4,000$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,200 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 50c | 3,320$1,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,660 | 574 | 53.8%309 W · 265 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…b0dcbacked Under | 53c | 3,262$1,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,728.03 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29fb…7dcbbacked Under | 52c | 3,048$1,585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,585 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0496…f985backed Over | 45c | 2,900$1,305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,595 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe7…2f3cbacked Under | 52c | 2,500$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 48c | 2,496$1,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,298 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 47c | 2,016$948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,068.48 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc93…f732backed Under | 52c | 1,695$881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$881.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fce…e9afbacked Under | 52c | 1,665$866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$865.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 51c | 1,140$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.51 | 629 | 44%277 W · 352 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9673…9482backed Under | 51c | 1,121$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.71 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf103…1b74backed Over | 45c | 1,010$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8025…31dcbacked Under | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…bd57backed Over | 48c | 860$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda2d…4c45backed Over | 48c | 835$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…6793backed Over | 48c | 835$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ddd…19c2backed Over | 49c | 834$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5381…f063backed Over | 48c | 805$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f10…854fbacked Over | 49c | 762$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe32a…384dbacked Over | 49c | 756$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.56 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 51c | 738.33$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.55 | 236 | 42.8%101 W · 135 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14cf…594ebacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 50c | 383$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.5 | 588 | 41.8%246 W · 342 L | -20.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec9…6287backed Over | 49c | 365$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.15 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb54…ccf3backed Under | 51c | 342$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85eb…53d4backed Under | 51c | 323$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce99…637ebacked Over | 50c | 320$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 269 | 46.1%124 W · 145 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaeb…21e9backed Under | 51c | 317$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…5caabacked Under | 51c | 312$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 366 | 52.7%193 W · 173 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bff…26c7backed Under | 51c | 175$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe792…4d26backed Under | 51c | 127$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Over | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 432 | 56.5%244 W · 188 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a66…9806backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe611…0ae4backed Under | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Over | 45c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Under | 51c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 178 | 45.5%81 W · 97 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Over | 50c | 34.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 601 | 41.9%252 W · 349 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…7696backed Under | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d1…4cb7backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Red Wings vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5this page
- Red Wings vs. DucksDucks won
- Spread: Ducks (-1.5)Ducks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.