Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on May 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe22402feba246d7893dc54c58958d055a69aecac669341e25487ce3686ebf376
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,750
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,936
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,750 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 77c | 992.16$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.54 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed No | 78c | 514.85$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.68 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e1…689ebacked Yes | 73c | 376.8$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed No | 27c | 311.36$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.29 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked No | 69c | 300.12$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.47 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43c6…f4f2backed Yes | 73c | 264.3$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 18c | 219.41$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.27 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 46c | 208.89$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 54c | 167.83$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.2 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed No | 66c | 127.85$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.52 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 66c | 103.42$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.02 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 39c | 101.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.64 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.64 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 33c | 82.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.17 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8778…fe54backed Yes | 64c | 78.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6061…0002backed Yes | 64c | 78.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed Yes | 60c | 72.9$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.02 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9743…d3a4backed No | 69c | 66.47$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25c7…45acbacked Yes | 60c | 64.34$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 61.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.63 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 47c | 61.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…d649backed No | 75c | 55.81$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa907…ba96backed Yes | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 27c | 52.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.48 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 68c | 52.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3277…f0b6backed No | 73c | 46.63$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6e…c21abacked Yes | 30c | 46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 44.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…76efbacked Yes | 74c | 39.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe60…c2f7backed No | 44c | 38.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 46c | 38.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…6c35backed No | 80c | 33.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8b…8e96backed Yes | 74c | 33.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c16…bb04backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked Yes | 48c | 27.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes | 75c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 61c | 24.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba5…191ebacked No | 63c | 20.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked Yes | 65c | 20.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x396b…1759backed Yes | 66c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -4.8wins | -0.29per pick | 58cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 73c | 14.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on May 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on May 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on May 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.