Tennis · resolved market
ITF Astana: Taiyo Yamanaka vs Sergey Petrov
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe23ae1828382d7b593ce09489186b604561fe11dc60be94b396a50ac47e549b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Taiyo Yamanakaof Taiyo Yamanaka, Sergey Petrov
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,230
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,931
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,230 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Sergey Petrov | 76c | 995.97$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.55 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7002…395cbacked Taiyo Yamanaka | 46c | 897.28$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.53 | 222 | 52.7%117 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424c…8580backed Taiyo Yamanaka | 9c | 431.59$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.47 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Taiyo Yamanaka | 14c | 344.86$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297 | 1,042 | 36.5%380 W · 662 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x449f…2d2ebacked Taiyo Yamanaka | 23c | 318.79$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.86 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0052…30bcbacked Sergey Petrov | 52c | 192.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Sergey Petrov | 40c | 182.7$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x168c…f24bbacked Taiyo Yamanaka | 61c | 167.54$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.67 | 624 | 57.7%360 W · 264 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…145dbacked Sergey Petrov | 70c | 147.2$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.58 | 917 | 54%495 W · 422 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55a8…e802backed Taiyo Yamanaka | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.86 | 363 | 42.1%153 W · 210 L | -16.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a62…4ab9backed Taiyo Yamanaka | 32c | 131.25$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.25 | 145 | 36.6%53 W · 92 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Sergey Petrov | 80c | 98.36$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.28 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…b627backed Sergey Petrov | 71c | 67.44$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.88 | 1,256 | 65.4%821 W · 435 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…ef05backed Taiyo Yamanaka | 57c | 56.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 372 | 62.9%234 W · 138 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Taiyo Yamanaka | 50c | 55.94$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Sergey Petrov | 74c | 54.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa594…fe78backed Taiyo Yamanaka | 56c | 48.23$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Taiyo Yamanaka | 46c | 37.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18cd…b710backed Sergey Petrov | 59c | 33.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5974…5c32backed Sergey Petrov | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 455 | 66.4%302 W · 153 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87e3…a9c6backed Taiyo Yamanaka | 43c | 26.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7de8…10ffbacked Taiyo Yamanaka | 59c | 25.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Taiyo Yamanaka | 48c | 20.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 578 | 45.7%264 W · 314 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…3a3fbacked Sergey Petrov | 73c | 20.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 213 | 51.6%110 W · 103 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04fc…eba1backed Sergey Petrov | 71c | 18.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 124 | 67.7%84 W · 40 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.