Tennis · resolved market
ITF Bergamo: Fausto Tabacco vs Federico Arnaboldi
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2616d1870aff6f4e6112bdb6a2bc0bfee0c3d30ec967b7f684fc140044c9d97
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Federico Arnaboldiof Fausto Tabacco, Federico Arnaboldi
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,967
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,559
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,967 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Federico Arnaboldi | 70c | 2,661$1,864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$796.86 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Fausto Tabacco | 24c | 1,875$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.16 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0284…97f6backed Fausto Tabacco | 34c | 982.92$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.88 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Fausto Tabacco | 39c | 889.61$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf96d…20bebacked Fausto Tabacco | 22c | 850.76$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.88 | 482 | 14.1%68 W · 414 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d5…8a03backed Fausto Tabacco | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -6.5wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Federico Arnaboldi | 79c | 430.1$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.44 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Federico Arnaboldi | 56c | 336$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.84 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b63…bdd3backed Fausto Tabacco | 13c | 324.23$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.75 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d0…4dffbacked Fausto Tabacco | 7c | 299.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 312 | 20.5%64 W · 248 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e50…4b22backed Federico Arnaboldi | 57c | 179.99$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.39 | 354 | 57.3%203 W · 151 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18d8…400bbacked Fausto Tabacco | 19c | 121.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 346 | 27.7%96 W · 250 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed Fausto Tabacco | 34c | 115.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 255 | 50.6%129 W · 126 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Fausto Tabacco | 22c | 90$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…ef05backed Fausto Tabacco | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 372 | 62.9%234 W · 138 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d2…4a24backed Fausto Tabacco | 17c | 68.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 529 | 10%53 W · 476 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7584…d6e6backed Federico Arnaboldi | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +4.6wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f3…d6dcbacked Federico Arnaboldi | 76c | 34.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 870 | 60.2%524 W · 346 L | +28.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Fausto Tabacco | 34c | 29.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 625 | 49.6%310 W · 315 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.