Mls · resolved market
Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-03-07?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe26f69b89bcc0f4dd7cc2e417ec8c3be3442cb7b7bec2fd3cd7ac7e5d825bea1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,148
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,148 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 56c | 2,544$1,424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,423.68 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked No | 57c | 2,246$1,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,280.49 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 55c | 2,234$1,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,233.9 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…1f26backed Yes | 38c | 1,515$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$937 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -58%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 45c | 1,246$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.06 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 63c | 1,045$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.36 | 215 | 45.1%97 W · 118 L | -20.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 44c | 665$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.4 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a6…7971backed Yes | 75c | 528.65$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.72 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -6.4wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 43c | 420$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.89 | 318 | 34.9%111 W · 207 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…764ebacked Yes | 37c | 416.3$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.06 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 52c | 370.58$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.25 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 44c | 318$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.6 | 236 | 43.6%103 W · 133 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4db9…14f5backed No | 56c | 312.5$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 32cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 8c | 312.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 24c | 274.2$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.19 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4300…5c69backed Yes | 45c | 228.86$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.03 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 46c | 206.46$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.06 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 33c | 106.06$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.06 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked No | 56c | 80.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Yes | 33c | 70.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.28 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 23c | 64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b5…20fcbacked Yes | 44c | 60.91$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +97%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 55c | 60.49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 151 | 44.4%67 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36cf…d3aebacked Yes | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 43c | 56.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Yes | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 49c | 55.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 89 | 19.1%17 W · 72 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf70…957bbacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6912…2aabbacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 29c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 43c | 41.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 198 | 47.5%94 W · 104 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 56c | 39.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1f…b12cbacked No | 57c | 36.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b2…4171backed No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca8…c044backed No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f8…73b4backed Yes | 45c | 32.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 56c | 30.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 47c | 30.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 44c | 29.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 57c | 29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 53c | 27.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6d…3070backed No | 49c | 23.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed No | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 57c | 20.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 57c | 19.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…3ca0backed No | 57c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-03-07?this page
- Will St. Louis City SC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw?No won
- Will St. Louis City SC win on 2026-03-07?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.