Serie A · resolved market
Will Parma vs. AC Milan end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe28dc2afbceef0df7747fbe0544e09fe77820f65f81cebe129f30b115a687834
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,408
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,468
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,408 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 28c | 8,212$2,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,282.18 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 73c | 2,247$1,642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.32 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Yes | 24c | 2,084$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,583.84 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…03b8backed Yes | 78c | 1,208$941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e5…092ebacked Yes | 18c | 1,123$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 75c | 1,035$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780.16 | 161 | 54%87 W · 74 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae5…f51dbacked Yes | 11c | 1,000$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$895 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x330b…69f1backed Yes | 25c | 914$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.5 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 32c | 633.58$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.82 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1402…4853backed Yes | 17c | 500.53$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.2 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 39cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 74c | 484.92$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.91 | 242 | 38.4%93 W · 149 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…716bbacked Yes | 24c | 416$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +116.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked No | 76c | 407.35$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.86 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 13c | 360.81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.39 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 48c | 345.38$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.38 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 23c | 309$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.83 | 481 | 44.1%212 W · 269 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 68c | 262$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.88 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…0e6abacked Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed Yes | 16c | 176$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.84 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1c…a0a4backed Yes | 24c | 143$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.68 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…50bcbacked Yes | 23c | 110$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeac5…7960backed Yes | 25c | 104$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +100%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…0730backed Yes | 24c | 101.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 196 | 52%102 W · 94 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…3e9fbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.44per pick | 27cpaid | +121.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Yes | 24c | 99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.15 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…eb72backed No | 77c | 96$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.92 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95a5…4f7cbacked Yes | 69c | 83$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed No | 19c | 79.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 97 | 54.6%53 W · 44 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55fb…4ec4backed Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…e969backed No | 24c | 66.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 78c | 60.56$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 430 | 58.6%252 W · 178 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef7…ae5cbacked Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2886…0e62backed No | 77c | 55$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d55…1e94backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe172…274ebacked Yes | 24c | 49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb9…f6b3backed Yes | 76c | 47.37$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x154c…658ebacked No | 34c | 36.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb315…d6c9backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Yes | 48c | 31.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad9…65d7backed No | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c7…7070backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9056…cc00backed No | 77c | 17.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Yes | 80c | 13.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.67 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.1wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3a40…afaabacked Yes | 76c | 13.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Parma vs. AC Milan end in a draw?this page
- Will AC Milan win on 2025-11-08?No won
- Will Parma win on 2025-11-08?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.