MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe29c0f85abcfb85281edb24ac50184f0ca0c17839807456f9ad91da0a4af56c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof Tampa Bay Rays, Boston Red Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,582
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,582 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7cb…bc54backed Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 1,192$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed Boston Red Sox | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4597…a491backed Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 909$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab4…5c79backed Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 866$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd428…100abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 753.99$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d71…b752backed Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 750$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x119b…d112backed Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 580$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66fc…1294backed Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 580$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x183c…9bf6backed Boston Red Sox | 61c | 565$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f6…1e91backed Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 510$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e3…94b7backed Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 490$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…93c6backed Boston Red Sox | 61c | 468$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…5dfebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 44c | 459.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b54…548dbacked Boston Red Sox | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…01b2backed Boston Red Sox | 61c | 398$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87c3…faf2backed Boston Red Sox | 60c | 380$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd742…2fd4backed Boston Red Sox | 60c | 351$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4c…1ccbbacked Boston Red Sox | 60c | 350$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306f…e156backed Boston Red Sox | 60c | 350$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a43…44cdbacked Boston Red Sox | 61c | 344$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6def…2ce0backed Boston Red Sox | 60c | 319.66$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Boston Red Sox | 57c | 263.94$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.26 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1592…bdf4backed Boston Red Sox | 60c | 260$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4f…6879backed Boston Red Sox | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb4c…9f09backed Boston Red Sox | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Boston Red Sox | 58c | 242.99$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.57 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed64…3260backed Boston Red Sox | 60c | 240$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac0…b014backed Boston Red Sox | 60c | 230$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc5…daa0backed Boston Red Sox | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 13c | 175.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 161 | 32.3%52 W · 109 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Boston Red Sox | 61c | 153.92$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.03 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 149.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 170 | 50%85 W · 85 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Boston Red Sox | 56c | 101.5$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.66 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Boston Red Sox | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda60…595cbacked Boston Red Sox | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 41c | 64.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 832 | 48%399 W · 433 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Boston Red Sox | 62c | 61.9$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddf5…aaa3backed Tampa Bay Rays | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +4.7wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Boston Red Sox | 58c | 46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Boston Red Sox | 61c | 39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb691…b39dbacked Boston Red Sox | 70c | 36.89$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Boston Red Sox | 75c | 20.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Boston Red Sox | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x254c…7678backed Boston Red Sox | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.