South American Leagues · resolved market
Will São Paulo FC vs. Cruzeiro EC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2b5b29b8859c1c1166728403595d0555062d7f9695fd460363f39a6fc2bd22f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,491
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,849
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,491 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8790…010bbacked Yes | 26c | 3,913$1,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,006.97 | 212 | 51.9%110 W · 102 L | +14.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 26c | 961$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.86 | 140 | 22.1%31 W · 109 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3831…d788backed Yes | 11c | 619.47$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.25 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 10c | 496.49$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.83 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…93ebbacked Yes | 9c | 429.06$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.62 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0f…574cbacked No | 75c | 299.39$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.92 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8a…02acbacked Yes | 9c | 265.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked Yes | 9c | 258.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 104 | 56.7%59 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed No | 75c | 235$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 335 | 60.9%204 W · 131 L | +18.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae7b…aec1backed No | 75c | 234.94$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.74 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed No | 75c | 234.94$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.74 | 123 | 61.8%76 W · 47 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b52…22cbbacked Yes | 9c | 185.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 68c | 141.07$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.7 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…7f73backed Yes | 32c | 119.9$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.37 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 74c | 119.21$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9027…5954backed Yes | 25c | 118.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +135.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Yes | 30c | 110$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 213 | 49.8%106 W · 107 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 31c | 95.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea3…71a1backed Yes | 23c | 89.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 14c | 79.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1036…fb48backed Yes | 31c | 77.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef5c…6ababacked No | 74c | 74.2$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 62 | 74.2%46 W · 16 L | +8.7wins | +0.14per pick | 60cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 31c | 67.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 201 | 42.3%85 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf399…287ebacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed No | 76c | 42.07$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 44 | 68.2%30 W · 14 L | +7.8wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x02e7…2519backed No | 77c | 38.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 74c | 31.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 69c | 30.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dda…8799backed No | 77c | 25.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c7…bb75backed No | 76c | 18.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94d4…18f9backed No | 75c | 17.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +3.6wins | +0.30per pick | 62cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed No | 78c | 15.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed No | 74c | 14.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 162 | 55.6%90 W · 72 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will São Paulo FC vs. Cruzeiro EC end in a draw?this page
- Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-04-04?No won
- Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-04-04?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.