South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-04-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbe96124bdd91f0d8a377de80a5e21f79694c871f799a5fecfe000524ca4a51a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,836
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,427
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,836 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb85…152fbacked Yes | 28c | 16,866$4,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,785.12 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 76c | 6,507$4,941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,565.93 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 71c | 6,225$4,447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,777.59 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb52b…b156backed Yes | 29c | 5,996$1,739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,739.16 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 74c | 3,362$2,478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884.75 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed No | 72c | 1,168$841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.01 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf72c…f818backed Yes | 10c | 955.78$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x310d…d698backed Yes | 29c | 831.43$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.32 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 72c | 787.78$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.86 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked No | 71c | 680.7$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.4 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe01c…7f6cbacked No | 73c | 583.99$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.68 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3831…d788backed Yes | 3c | 514.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 71c | 500$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 3c | 495.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2807…27d5backed Yes | 13c | 364.54$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.39 | 60 | 20%12 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0542…e195backed Yes | 13c | 364.47$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.38 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 73c | 329.04$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.84 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 73c | 229.09$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.32 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa46d…d8e5backed No | 72c | 225.28$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.08 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4192…d6aabacked No | 72c | 210$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 72c | 200$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba8…ac05backed Yes | 19c | 190.21$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…fd0bbacked Yes | 13c | 187.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd810…2eb8backed No | 72c | 185$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 71c | 180$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 551 | 55%303 W · 248 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed No | 74c | 154.55$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.18 | 63 | 69.8%44 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 75cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1729…11afbacked Yes | 28c | 153.77$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 73c | 151.5$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.66 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe735…4198backed No | 72c | 150$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x666b…d240backed No | 72c | 150$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9f…5403backed No | 74c | 116.41$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.44 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +6.8wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0577…02ccbacked No | 72c | 110$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6a…8aa7backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5660…1707backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 72c | 97.7$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc311…c154backed No | 71c | 69.2$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 82 | 67.1%55 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc161…bd88backed Yes | 31c | 61.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a48…626fbacked Yes | 28c | 61.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf399…287ebacked Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…29e6backed No | 73c | 38.61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed No | 73c | 38.61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 367 | 57.5%211 W · 156 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked No | 73c | 38.61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 412 | 56.6%233 W · 179 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked No | 73c | 38.61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 178 | 57.3%102 W · 76 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed No | 74c | 38.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 188 | 59%111 W · 77 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed No | 74c | 38.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 335 | 60.9%204 W · 131 L | +18.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed No | 74c | 38.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0195…9f64backed No | 73c | 33.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 76cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8943…6c65backed No | 74c | 23.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5a…d48abacked No | 74c | 17.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 12 | 100%12 W · 0 L | +4.7wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked No | 74c | 15.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 82 | 65.9%54 W · 28 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked No | 73c | 15.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 166 | 53.6%89 W · 77 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-04-04?this page
- Will São Paulo FC vs. Cruzeiro EC end in a draw?No won
- Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-04-04?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.