South American Leagues · resolved market
CR Vasco da Gama vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2ef0dfb17eb9810c6a09d3b634329d91fb615f2a12b72967094c732e3a5e9c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,676
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,497
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,676 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 40c | 16,427$6,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,565.99 | 367 | 27%99 W · 268 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 59c | 15,451$9,158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,292.61 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 36c | 8,699$3,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,092.29 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 60c | 2,969$1,786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,182.46 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…c867backed Under | 61c | 2,069$1,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804.17 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +6.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +28%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…2b04backed Under | 60c | 1,167$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.66 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 46cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 60c | 1,086$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.25 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed07…886abacked Under | 48c | 1,003$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.8 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Over | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 167 | 47.9%80 W · 87 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 60c | 867.01$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.84 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Under | 74c | 810.22$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.35 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 60c | 801.81$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.81 | 270 | 50.7%137 W · 133 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Under | 60c | 340$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6827…26fdbacked Over | 51c | 299$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2344…6ba3backed Over | 7c | 288.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…7b3fbacked Under | 78c | 184.65$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.62 | 96 | 54.2%52 W · 44 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 31c | 163.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.35 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 56c | 161.37$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.38 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 35c | 142.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…f219backed Over | 41c | 114.63$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 50c | 108.8$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.94 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Over | 46c | 106.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 25c | 101.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3b…6ba5backed Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Under | 60c | 85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 117 | 63.2%74 W · 43 L | +9.7wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d59…31dcbacked Under | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 130 | 41.5%54 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9796…9032backed Over | 50c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 48c | 41.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 51c | 38.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57cb…2208backed Under | 60c | 34.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7604…f7cdbacked Over | 31c | 34.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf24e…080dbacked Under | 71c | 32.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 21 | 85.7%18 W · 3 L | +4.9wins | +0.23per pick | 62cpaid | +37%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Over | 52c | 26.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c9…617dbacked Over | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d3…43abbacked Under | 63c | 20.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86ca…bc47backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…2d57backed Under | 78c | 16.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.63 | 114 | 61.4%70 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CR Vasco da Gama vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 2.5this page
- CR Vasco da Gama vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CR Vasco da Gama vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 1.5Over won
- CR Vasco da Gama vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 3.5Under won
- CR Vasco da Gama vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.