South American Leagues · resolved market
CR Vasco da Gama vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77bed7f4547dd2a1df63a9efc518cc9960b6fb850ba868d44cb166d17aec13de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,261
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,746
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,261 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8566…c626backed Over | 50c | 24,583$12,291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,291.29 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -5.4wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 19,726$9,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,598.84 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 38c | 10,248$3,929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,928.88 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 70c | 8,043$5,630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,412.9 | 367 | 27%99 W · 268 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 51c | 3,009$1,537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,536.81 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Under | 73c | 1,687$1,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,232.61 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…e4efbacked Over | 45c | 999.22$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.57 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +32%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 61c | 436.15$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.17 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 76c | 422.02$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.02 | 166 | 56%93 W · 73 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 100 | 69%69 W · 31 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 23c | 349.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 551 | 55%303 W · 248 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 52c | 322.4$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.64 | 270 | 50.7%137 W · 133 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 59c | 292.4$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.4 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 24c | 281.12$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.25 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…c3b5backed Under | 52c | 250$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe015…621fbacked Under | 52c | 217.79$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.25 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1963…8122backed Over | 77c | 212.47$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.87 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 53c | 190$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.3 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Under | 37c | 139.71$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.63 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa21f…adddbacked Over | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64e2…da93backed Under | 55c | 116.67$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.67 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 71c | 113$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 74c | 105.8$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 359 | 58.8%211 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x649a…02afbacked Over | 71c | 105$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 70cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…d72dbacked Over | 63c | 79.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.48 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3d…fea8backed Over | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…2320backed Over | 45c | 59.66$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 64 | 68.8%44 W · 20 L | +8.7wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 51c | 50.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…81a1backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…2b01backed Under | 53c | 41.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bca…24aebacked Over | 51c | 41.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 52c | 34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 373 | 55.2%206 W · 167 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 54c | 32.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44c9…2bd8backed Over | 66c | 31.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -8.1wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd944…07d5backed Under | 53c | 26.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Over | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3757…542ebacked Over | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…98edbacked Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc596…4368backed Over | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf9…1646backed Over | 77c | 16.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb4…68c3backed Over | 76c | 14.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CR Vasco da Gama vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 1.5this page
- CR Vasco da Gama vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CR Vasco da Gama vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 2.5Under won
- CR Vasco da Gama vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 3.5Under won
- CR Vasco da Gama vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.