Tennis · resolved market
China Open: Emma Raducanu vs Cristina Bucsa
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe30d0c07cd0f6f9f701d5dc898f53b2ccf2cfe90e6292e8739f9b20f1fff645f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raducanuof Raducanu, Bucsa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,626
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,478
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,626 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Raducanu | 73c | 2,252$1,644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.04 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa82a…a759backed Bucsa | 27c | 1,852$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.04 | 339 | 55.2%187 W · 152 L | +18.2wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Bucsa | 28c | 1,443$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 154 | 39.6%61 W · 93 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…5bf6backed Raducanu | 69c | 1,340$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.4 | 206 | 53.4%110 W · 96 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Raducanu | 77c | 1,136$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.36 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Bucsa | 20c | 890$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.8 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3868…5683backed Bucsa | 31c | 830$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.4 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Bucsa | 27c | 803.2$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.86 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Raducanu | 73c | 575$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.25 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Bucsa | 26c | 528.68$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.82 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Bucsa | 27c | 432.73$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.56 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Bucsa | 24c | 420$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 476 | 39.1%186 W · 290 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Raducanu | 74c | 384.62$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Bucsa | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dcd…1722backed Bucsa | 24c | 273.7$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.8 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Bucsa | 24c | 240$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 173 | 49.1%85 W · 88 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Bucsa | 30c | 218.44$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.2 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x459a…8a5abacked Bucsa | 27c | 206.48$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.75 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd546…bb33backed Raducanu | 76c | 169.58$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 74cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Raducanu | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Raducanu | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…ff34backed Bucsa | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7f…90c5backed Bucsa | 31c | 97.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -7.5wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Bucsa | 23c | 70.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Bucsa | 27c | 59.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Bucsa | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Raducanu | 73c | 17.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -9.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.