Fifa International · resolved market
Will United States win on 2025-09-06?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3709d300679b1a4d13431b2faf62c6a8d6abcc1a1813f153538785f77750306
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,330
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,354
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,330 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd4a…048ebacked No | 55c | 545$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.25 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9375…1dbdbacked No | 59c | 498.95$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 41c | 433.57$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.76 | 246 | 47.6%117 W · 129 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 54c | 343.81$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.15 | 211 | 40.3%85 W · 126 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37d8…b6ddbacked Yes | 45c | 291.76$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.29 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…4291backed Yes | 45c | 253.24$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6891…949fbacked Yes | 46c | 250$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Yes | 17c | 116.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 57c | 104.26$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 423 | 52%220 W · 203 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0281…34e7backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 58c | 95.76$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.22 | 102 | 63.7%65 W · 37 L | +11.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 54c | 80.23$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.89 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5913…3bbebacked Yes | 43c | 66.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 116 | 60.3%70 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x939c…aa7cbacked Yes | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb39e…5182backed Yes | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a75…0230backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 53c | 26.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 120 | 47.5%57 W · 63 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 64c | 22.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 103 | 66%68 W · 35 L | +12.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 53c | 22.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 202 | 45.5%92 W · 110 L | -13.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 47c | 21.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will United States win on 2025-09-06?this page
- Will Korea Republic win on 2025-09-06?Yes won
- Will United States vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.