Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 52°F or higher on February 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3a1c14027b266b2286c2f3c0686022dccd2c91d2bda9aac75f85899e46a4afd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,243
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,599
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,243 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3834…1171backed No | 58c | 391.69$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 54c | 383.29$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.58 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 6c | 359.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 63c | 295.86$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.19 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 43c | 279.05$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.05 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 41c | 245.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.51 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 44c | 215.97$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.35 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 34c | 200$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.9 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 43c | 180.54$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.15 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 36c | 179.13$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.13 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 24c | 155.24$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20b0…bbaebacked Yes | 44c | 143.77$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 43c | 139.97$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.99 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 58c | 111.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.3 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 108.46$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…34d2backed Yes | 46c | 97.83$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.83 | 66 | 74.2%49 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x809c…4861backed Yes | 46c | 95.09$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.73 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 35c | 92.34$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.88 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 53c | 86.89$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.19 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad41…d390backed Yes | 35c | 79$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +92.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…f5c3backed Yes | 35c | 71.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.72 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 33c | 62.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.93 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 70c | 61.65$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe523…09ddbacked Yes | 65c | 51.58$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed No | 60c | 50.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa537…e569backed Yes | 44c | 48.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 67cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 63c | 44.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…f1cebacked No | 30c | 41.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d84…2c45backed No | 54c | 41.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3c…4fecbacked No | 56c | 38.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 54c | 36.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eec…9d96backed No | 56c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 49c | 34.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d91…42c3backed Yes | 58c | 34.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Yes | 68c | 33.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed No | 54c | 33.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ec…a818backed Yes | 31c | 32.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 63c | 32.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…665dbacked No | 53c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x520b…100abacked No | 47c | 29.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 85 | 65.9%56 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecc…bd0bbacked Yes | 46c | 29.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d3…4d30backed Yes | 51c | 28.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 57c | 28.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf465…8a3bbacked Yes | 47c | 27.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 40 | 80%32 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf707…20f0backed Yes | 37c | 27.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76fc…48fabacked Yes | 45c | 26.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc255…b95cbacked No | 65c | 23.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 65c | 23.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 49c | 23.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…ba5cbacked Yes | 45c | 22.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeea9…3a27backed No | 68c | 18.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 71cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 52°F or higher on February 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 37°F or below on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 40-41°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on February 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.