Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on February 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93223767216947cf5654fd51b410654777be46233aa3f32302823cc54539f7ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,812
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,901
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,812 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 51c | 209.58$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.01 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…3296backed Yes | 70c | 195.51$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.94 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 20c | 166.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 57c | 155.58$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.09 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 40c | 147.75$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.13 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 32c | 137.13$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf4…c2efbacked Yes | 41c | 135.12$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.4 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 9c | 129.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 38c | 118.01$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.62 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 40c | 98.06$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b3…487cbacked Yes | 11c | 90.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 57c | 87.41$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.94 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 63c | 86.22$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.32 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 38c | 86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x324b…3fe4backed Yes | 54c | 74.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 38c | 63.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 62c | 63$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d84…2c45backed No | 57c | 61.15$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea4c…dd88backed Yes | 23c | 55.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 25cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 54c | 54.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe82…7056backed Yes | 37c | 53.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ae…a7d6backed Yes | 41c | 46.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…4043backed Yes | 32c | 45.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x531e…a7b3backed Yes | 36c | 42.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 62c | 41.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 75c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 57c | 35.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 58c | 34.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked No | 46c | 32.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f7…5a55backed Yes | 61c | 32.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 62c | 32.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 54c | 28.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 50c | 25.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…7c31backed No | 47c | 25.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdeee…7c09backed No | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 45c | 23.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 48c | 21.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…d55fbacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…f1cebacked No | 65c | 17.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x861e…37aabacked Yes | 61c | 16.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3f…3578backed No | 62c | 16.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on February 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 37°F or below on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 52°F or higher on February 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 40-41°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on February 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.