NBA · resolved market
Wizards vs. Mavericks
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3b305286bd6526b54791716ef39d5ff30800c2e6215541ba7ef95c0c2fcef9e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mavericksof Wizards, Mavericks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,018
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,990
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,018 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x997b…801ebacked Wizards | 15c | 10,300$1,548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,547.99 | 461 | 31%143 W · 318 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Wizards | 2c | 3,200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1,277 | 2.3%29 W · 1,248 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -84%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Wizards | 15c | 3,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 406 | 27.8%113 W · 293 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76aa…ba27backed Wizards | 15c | 1,424$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5482…b6eebacked Wizards | 2c | 664.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 550 | 2.5%14 W · 536 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90b6…1d6bbacked Wizards | 14c | 516.93$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.02 | 502 | 45.8%230 W · 272 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb337…5589backed Wizards | 15c | 516.3$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.45 | 366 | 43.2%158 W · 208 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf5…6440backed Wizards | 14c | 480.28$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.24 | 469 | 28.4%133 W · 336 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Wizards | 14c | 318.84$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.41 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Wizards | 12c | 271.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 304 | 40.5%123 W · 181 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…7a1bbacked Wizards | 15c | 250$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 169 | 28.4%48 W · 121 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…590bbacked Wizards | 16c | 206.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53f4…8c52backed Wizards | 16c | 203.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 105 | 40%42 W · 63 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee06…f8b1backed Wizards | 16c | 191.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50f9…3d83backed Wizards | 15c | 133.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f4e…2a3abacked Wizards | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Wizards | 16c | 90.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 855 | 42%359 W · 496 L | +10.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9da2…ae77backed Wizards | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.