CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Ursa - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3ba835a8015597d2ee822710ed5d8630ba80a338851c3c20d45e45e38cf61b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ursaof Phantom, Ursa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,603
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,930
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,603 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Ursa | 69c | 1,739$1,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.81 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Ursa | 58c | 1,598$922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.47 | 7,990 | 50.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L | +180.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Phantom | 40c | 1,141$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.41 | 5,341 | 31.3%1,674 W · 3,667 L | -390.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Phantom | 27c | 1,083$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.47 | 6,501 | 42.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L | -79.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d4…a7abbacked Ursa | 47c | 1,022$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.5 | 164 | 47%77 W · 87 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec7b…917ebacked Phantom | 58c | 1,013$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.78 | 283 | 40.3%114 W · 169 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd07…8d16backed Phantom | 54c | 999.99$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.99 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490a…1d4bbacked Phantom | 53c | 819.9$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.55 | 292 | 35.6%104 W · 188 L | -11.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Phantom | 17c | 750$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 567 | 32.5%184 W · 383 L | -30.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Ursa | 60c | 591.16$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.34 | 2,328 | 51.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L | +92.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Ursa | 66c | 443.88$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.11 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed Phantom | 38c | 400$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 608 | 38.2%232 W · 376 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed Ursa | 42c | 400$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232 | 783 | 48.4%379 W · 404 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Ursa | 46c | 371.17$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.43 | 5,580 | 47.2%2,632 W · 2,948 L | +47.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed Phantom | 43c | 279.34$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.98 | 640 | 46.3%296 W · 344 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Phantom | 31c | 275.9$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.46 | 1,398 | 48.4%676 W · 722 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Phantom | 19c | 271.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.29 | 4,099 | 51%2,091 W · 2,008 L | +74.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Phantom | 26c | 269.5$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.71 | 3,949 | 36.5%1,443 W · 2,506 L | -201.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…0539backed Phantom | 35c | 266.94$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.43 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…8dbbbacked Phantom | 45c | 255.92$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.4 | 260 | 37.3%97 W · 163 L | -17.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca81…f2abbacked Phantom | 28c | 250$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 357 | 44.3%158 W · 199 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7069…325bbacked Phantom | 49c | 231.84$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.6 | 949 | 45.8%435 W · 514 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9859…1650backed Phantom | 53c | 222.26$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.75 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5c…9edabacked Phantom | 42c | 218.66$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.51 | 60 | 71.7%43 W · 17 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca2…5d25backed Phantom | 56c | 200.93$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.68 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Ursa | 50c | 198.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.87 | 1,710 | 52.3%895 W · 815 L | -73.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9919…f261backed Ursa | 45c | 186.95$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.82 | 418 | 47.1%197 W · 221 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Phantom | 30c | 174.41$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.28 | 1,548 | 33.9%524 W · 1,024 L | -73.9wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17ca…87d1backed Phantom | 55c | 153$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.15 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…d703backed Phantom | 21c | 136.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 385 | 52.7%203 W · 182 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Ursa | 47c | 123.6$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.51 | 724 | 51.2%371 W · 353 L | +29.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…ae39backed Ursa | 49c | 121.43$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.34 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Ursa | 66c | 121.29$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.31 | 5,095 | 55.1%2,805 W · 2,290 L | +119.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Phantom | 34c | 116.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 1,041 | 39.9%415 W · 626 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6712…a95bbacked Ursa | 47c | 103$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.59 | 139 | 38.1%53 W · 86 L | -11.3wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -19%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce7a…fef0backed Ursa | 45c | 97.84$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.81 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Ursa | 66c | 96.29$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 2,061 | 50.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Ursa | 59c | 90.87$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.51 | 1,109 | 50.5%560 W · 549 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca8…3a5dbacked Phantom | 55c | 88.54$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Ursa | 45c | 85.96$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.28 | 1,325 | 44.1%584 W · 741 L | +44.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Ursa | 75c | 82.92$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 213 | 51.2%109 W · 104 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…9111backed Ursa | 51c | 74.61$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Phantom | 29c | 68.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,102 | 16.8%353 W · 1,749 L | -286.5wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1e04…57c7backed Ursa | 80c | 62.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaabb…9ab8backed Phantom | 38c | 50.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9a…9e52backed Phantom | 41c | 47.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 93 | 29%27 W · 66 L | -9.9wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb53a…e694backed Phantom | 41c | 44.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2af6…7cb7backed Ursa | 78c | 44.17$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…c2f5backed Ursa | 65c | 43.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbce0…d031backed Ursa | 48c | 40.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Ursa | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 1,051 | 57.2%601 W · 450 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab1…86e3backed Phantom | 56c | 34.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb14…9235backed Ursa | 46c | 29.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdf…8666backed Ursa | 72c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 185 | 45.4%84 W · 101 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09f4…58c4backed Ursa | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 117 | 68.4%80 W · 37 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Ursa | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 623 | 50.9%317 W · 306 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07e4…186ebacked Phantom | 60c | 18.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 344 | 62.2%214 W · 130 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f0…b7b1backed Ursa | 63c | 17.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Ursa | 75c | 16.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 275 | 56.7%156 W · 119 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Ursa - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Ursa (BO3) - European Pro League Series 6 PlayoffsPhantom won
- Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Ursa - Map 1 WinnerPhantom won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.