CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Ursa - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7773192a4e9241767a884c7640d015e3393c83816f47d53c30d2f49da02733ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Phantomof Phantom, Ursa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,445
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,778
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,445 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Phantom | 47c | 2,275$1,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,204.35 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d22…4b50backed Ursa | 54c | 1,931$1,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.46 | 205 | 54.1%111 W · 94 L | +17.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x023e…7334backed Ursa | 57c | 1,252$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.97 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x490a…1d4bbacked Phantom | 44c | 1,076$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.16 | 292 | 35.6%104 W · 188 L | -11.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca2…5d25backed Ursa | 55c | 735.51$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.31 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Phantom | 59c | 610$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.77 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Ursa | 62c | 453.27$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.16 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Phantom | 49c | 349.09$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.4 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b59…0ba0backed Ursa | 32c | 326.11$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.07 | 557 | 38.4%214 W · 343 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Phantom | 35c | 313.39$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.84 | 1,038 | 39.9%414 W · 624 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Phantom | 67c | 313.35$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.62 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec7b…917ebacked Ursa | 13c | 218.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 277 | 40.8%113 W · 164 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6712…a95bbacked Ursa | 62c | 177.59$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.81 | 139 | 38.1%53 W · 86 L | -11.3wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -19%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Ursa | 10c | 169.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 567 | 32.5%184 W · 383 L | -30.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Phantom | 45c | 166.85$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.67 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Ursa | 61c | 118.01$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.29 | 1,710 | 52.3%895 W · 815 L | -73.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…aefdbacked Phantom | 42c | 113.89$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.06 | 840 | 37.9%318 W · 522 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb53a…e694backed Ursa | 13c | 109.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Ursa | 19c | 106.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Phantom | 54c | 104.2$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.64 | 2,328 | 51.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L | +92.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Phantom | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 328 | 45.1%148 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Phantom | 67c | 89.17$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.21 | 2,604 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L | +98.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Ursa | 49c | 86.56$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Phantom | 49c | 83.5$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 1,109 | 50.5%560 W · 549 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…9111backed Phantom | 49c | 80.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.98 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Phantom | 44c | 66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 2,468 | 24.6%607 W · 1,861 L | -317.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9b83…f841backed Ursa | 51c | 60.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Phantom | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 2,061 | 50.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc866…8c6dbacked Ursa | 42c | 58.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 225 | 34.2%77 W · 148 L | -19.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f0…b7b1backed Phantom | 63c | 53.78$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdab…8aeabacked Ursa | 55c | 53.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Ursa | 60c | 51.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 1,043 | 57.3%598 W · 445 L | +17.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Phantom | 61c | 48.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 1,046 | 45%471 W · 575 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3e…5bc0backed Ursa | 64c | 38.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 153 | 58.2%89 W · 64 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…ae39backed Phantom | 64c | 38.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Ursa | 52c | 22.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 3,910 | 36.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L | -197.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Ursa - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Ursa (BO3) - European Pro League Series 6 PlayoffsPhantom won
- Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Ursa - Map 2 WinnerUrsa won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.