Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3d30181eed84e4e198fd3db51e7297b63d85dcdaa58d5172037407aaae01714
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,495
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,135
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,495 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7b8…0d21backed Up | 50c | 2,045$1,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,024.28 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed Up | 37c | 1,600$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Down | 57c | 1,351$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.95 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Up | 29c | 1,251$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.77 | 1,265 | 24.5%310 W · 955 L | -56.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3f…2e7cbacked Down | 58c | 786.07$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.93 | 81 | 65.4%53 W · 28 L | +10.3wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4867…a6f8backed Up | 52c | 625$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Down | 71c | 500$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 930 | 40.3%375 W · 555 L | -67.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Up | 19c | 316.25$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.74 | 303 | 43.2%131 W · 172 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd65e…c98cbacked Up | 43c | 281.37$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Up | 26c | 280.88$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.41 | 96 | 40.6%39 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf640…02b1backed Down | 68c | 251.22$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Up | 17c | 208.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cea…ffd2backed Down | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 104 | 67.3%70 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2f…07d3backed Down | 41c | 199.98$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x718f…f25abacked Up | 26c | 155.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked Down | 58c | 130$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf64…bf7dbacked Up | 44c | 110.2$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed Up | 42c | 105.61$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Up | 16c | 82.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…384ebacked Up | 28c | 70.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…d8e3backed Up | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.38per pick | 49cpaid | +97.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4199…b1c3backed Down | 43c | 46.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…54c0backed Up | 38c | 39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe89c…0124backed Down | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b4e…150cbacked Down | 59c | 29.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed Up | 42c | 28.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Up | 44c | 27.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 1,045 | 34.6%362 W · 683 L | -93.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4a…8a46backed Down | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | -11.3wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf319…1902backed Up | 54c | 23.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked Down | 75c | 22.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x226a…eec3backed Up | 48c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffa9…db6cbacked Down | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked Down | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.