College Football · resolved market
Spread: Tennessee (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe409b2847e951cdd0b0e9dbcdf34d8bd83428eeef670e9d0aaada5bfc23acae5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tennesseeof Tennessee, Kentucky
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,330
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,329
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,330 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Kentucky | 52c | 7,846$4,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,092.98 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Tennessee | 48c | 4,921$2,362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,558.83 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Tennessee | 47c | 2,128$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,127.84 | 290 | 55.2%160 W · 130 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d5…1ccbbacked Kentucky | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8058…d023backed Kentucky | 53c | 1,494$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.7 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Tennessee | 47c | 1,300$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Tennessee | 48c | 932$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.45 | 342 | 50.3%172 W · 170 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Tennessee | 47c | 900$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477 | 120 | 42.5%51 W · 69 L | -11.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Kentucky | 53c | 750$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | -10.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Tennessee | 48c | 625$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 213 | 48.8%104 W · 109 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…1ed3backed Tennessee | 46c | 339$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.06 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +4.7wins | +0.27per pick | 49cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Tennessee | 48c | 291.67$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.67 | 302 | 53%160 W · 142 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Tennessee | 47c | 215$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.95 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Tennessee | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 174 | 50%87 W · 87 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Kentucky | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Tennessee | 48c | 180$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 209 | 50.2%105 W · 104 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Tennessee | 47c | 105.45$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Tennessee | 48c | 72.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Tennessee | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 241 | 57.3%138 W · 103 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Tennessee | 47c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tennessee (-8.5)this page
- O/U 54.5Over won
- Spread: Tennessee (-9.5)Tennessee won
- Tennessee vs. KentuckyTennessee won
- Tennessee vs. Kentucky: 1H MoneylineTennessee won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.