Premier League · resolved market
Watford FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4209f6a179aa334c8c232af6144a8459aa6605ad9bfe1148a276fa23b926565
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $380,838
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $382,221
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $380,838 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Under | 56c | 360,872$201,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159,121.49 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -7.7wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Over | 44c | 150,000$66,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66,000 | 248 | 46.8%116 W · 132 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 44c | 148,754$65,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65,451.92 | 255 | 51.8%132 W · 123 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 44c | 35,511$15,778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,778.31 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 45c | 7,692$3,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,499.44 | 850 | 48.4%411 W · 439 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 43c | 6,250$2,696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,695.69 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 45c | 5,000$2,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,249.98 | 506 | 44.3%224 W · 282 L | -14.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Over | 44c | 3,333$1,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,466.52 | 182 | 59.3%108 W · 74 L | +14.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 44c | 2,064$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.27 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 55c | 1,183$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.23 | 758 | 50%379 W · 379 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 41c | 1,121$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.53 | 469 | 43.5%204 W · 265 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 45c | 1,087$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.43 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 55c | 932.06$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.43 | 1,283 | 48%616 W · 667 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 55c | 699.97$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.99 | 301 | 49.5%149 W · 152 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 43c | 599.55$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.68 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Under | 41c | 421.62$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.81 | 97 | 33%32 W · 65 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff9…009dbacked Over | 39c | 384.62$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Under | 52c | 347.43$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.05 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…222bbacked Over | 8c | 335.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Over | 46c | 328.05$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.9 | 253 | 48.2%122 W · 131 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc208…e74fbacked Under | 55c | 268.2$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 45c | 235$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.75 | 722 | 49.9%360 W · 362 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5140…9951backed Under | 55c | 218.18$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.18 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 46c | 183.54$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.88 | 1,662 | 34.9%580 W · 1,082 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…3746backed Over | 37c | 150$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53cd…f23ebacked Over | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over | 45c | 150$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 834 | 59.4%495 W · 339 L | +25.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Over | 45c | 135$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.75 | 655 | 57.7%378 W · 277 L | +26.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Over | 45c | 115$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 351 | 57.8%203 W · 148 L | +18.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Over | 45c | 112$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 292 | 59.2%173 W · 119 L | +14.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 41c | 106.82$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 741 | 56.8%421 W · 320 L | +46.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 85 | 16.5%14 W · 71 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e5…1f2fbacked Under | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…b3c5backed Over | 45c | 90$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 273 | 54.9%150 W · 123 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Over | 45c | 90$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 323 | 57.6%186 W · 137 L | +17.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 55c | 85$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 210 | 49%103 W · 107 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee1…268bbacked Under | 55c | 81.49$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -4.5wins | -0.26per pick | 50cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x84fc…9db4backed Over | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | +13.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed Over | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 261 | 58.2%152 W · 109 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed Over | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 305 | 54.8%167 W · 138 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Over | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 254 | 56.3%143 W · 111 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Over | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 260 | 58.5%152 W · 108 L | +15.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed Over | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 367 | 58.3%214 W · 153 L | +23.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked Over | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 290 | 57.9%168 W · 122 L | +14.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed Over | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 282 | 55.7%157 W · 125 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Over | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 383 | 58.2%223 W · 160 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Over | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 283 | 59.4%168 W · 115 L | +16.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…22a9backed Over | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 321 | 58.6%188 W · 133 L | +18.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a53dbacked Over | 46c | 57.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a2…e49cbacked Over | 46c | 57.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 279 | 55.9%156 W · 123 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 44c | 52.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 497 | 53.7%267 W · 230 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 362 | 59.1%214 W · 148 L | +23.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46af…1f6abacked Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b5…798cbacked Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e49…fb01backed Under | 54c | 45.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…856cbacked Over | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95fe…3896backed Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x546e…ec0cbacked Over | 46c | 35.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb03…ddcebacked Over | 46c | 35.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfef9…67afbacked Under | 55c | 34.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9b…2be5backed Over | 46c | 30.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 76 | 63.2%48 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6afd…5cb1backed Over | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 229 | 58.1%133 W · 96 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…ccd1backed Over | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a05…5e25backed Under | 50c | 26.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdf…8adabacked Over | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 236 | 58.1%137 W · 99 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…c728backed Over | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 269 | 59.9%161 W · 108 L | +13.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…d695backed Over | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 228 | 58.8%134 W · 94 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 55c | 19.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 159 | 49.1%78 W · 81 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb152…ef4cbacked Over | 66c | 15.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Watford FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Watford FC vs. Derby County FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Watford FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Watford FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.