Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Drake Bulldogs vs. Murray State Racers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe430fe5c4ef936459aae866e54fb6dee32c43253aa1dd4dce8ddb2bf9b971581
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Murray State Racersof Drake Bulldogs, Murray State Racers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,148
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,397
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,148 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Murray State Racers | 74c | 2,525$1,868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.58 | 556 | 57.4%319 W · 237 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Drake Bulldogs | 18c | 1,754$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.7 | 1,173 | 25.2%296 W · 877 L | -43.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Drake Bulldogs | 26c | 828$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.28 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Drake Bulldogs | 26c | 677.24$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.08 | 163 | 41.7%68 W · 95 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Murray State Racers | 72c | 605$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.08 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Drake Bulldogs | 26c | 554.45$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.06 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x363d…fe75backed Drake Bulldogs | 26c | 461.54$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 122 | 45.1%55 W · 67 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Murray State Racers | 72c | 415.88$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.92 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Murray State Racers | 71c | 398.67$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.9 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Drake Bulldogs | 28c | 380.39$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.51 | 529 | 28.4%150 W · 379 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Drake Bulldogs | 29c | 372.96$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.13 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Drake Bulldogs | 14c | 172$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Drake Bulldogs | 26c | 139.95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.83 | 1,420 | 43.9%623 W · 797 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…eeaebacked Drake Bulldogs | 28c | 137.41$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 1,227 | 27.8%341 W · 886 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Murray State Racers | 73c | 136.16$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.76 | 210 | 50%105 W · 105 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Murray State Racers | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 254 | 38.2%97 W · 157 L | -14.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Murray State Racers | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Murray State Racers | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Murray State Racers | 73c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Murray State Racers | 75c | 13.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.