Mls · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Union (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe45b1542e1207a64a10eba3ffbeaf3ac2f865b4d3207fb44eed2478dcbb4fa06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Austin FCof Philadelphia Union, Austin FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,899
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,904
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,899 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x425d…86e1backed Philadelphia Union | 16c | 783.96$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Austin FC | 74c | 395.25$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.76 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Philadelphia Union | 26c | 391$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.66 | 355 | 50.4%179 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Philadelphia Union | 11c | 312.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.36 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Philadelphia Union | 14c | 278$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Philadelphia Union | 29c | 102$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 200 | 43%86 W · 114 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Philadelphia Union | 11c | 100.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Austin FC | 72c | 63.98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Philadelphia Union | 27c | 40.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 169 | 48.5%82 W · 87 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Austin FC | 71c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked Austin FC | 72c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Austin FC | 74c | 32.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 198 | 52.5%104 W · 94 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8084…abe8backed Austin FC | 75c | 29.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 78cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Austin FC | 74c | 24.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Austin FC | 60c | 19.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Austin FC | 70c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Austin FC | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +3.8wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +61%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Union (-1.5)this page
- Austin FC vs. Philadelphia Union: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Austin FC vs. Philadelphia Union: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Austin FC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 1.5Over won
- Austin FC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 2.5Under won
- Austin FC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 3.5Under won
- Austin FC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 4.5Under won
- Austin FC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 5.5Under won
- Austin FC vs. Philadelphia Union: Philadelphia Union O/U 0.5Over won
- Austin FC vs. Philadelphia Union: Philadelphia Union O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Austin FC (-1.5)Philadelphia Union won
- Spread: Philadelphia Union (-2.5)Austin FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.