Mls · resolved market
Austin FC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x686eb4f61b960ed2b2d637474237200be949db41d9529cb76c6064b84b64ed6e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,637
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,068
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,637 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5952…db2fbacked Under | 13c | 5,529$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,828.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +58%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 40c | 1,308$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.32 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…6ca8backed Over | 57c | 970.32$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 54c | 858.21$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.31 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 60c | 785.73$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.58 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e7…50d1backed Under | 40c | 750$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 60c | 599.72$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.83 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 40c | 495.02$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.2 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6daa…954abacked Over | 60c | 476.18$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.71 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 32c | 410.71$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.65 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 68c | 370.43$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.49 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 58c | 343.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.92 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd170…a9d9backed Over | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 72c | 197.83$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.15 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 53c | 194.02$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.05 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Over | 60c | 165$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 48c | 153.83$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.27 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 43c | 126.33$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.46 | 233 | 50.6%118 W · 115 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Over | 46c | 113.14$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.15 | 314 | 46.5%146 W · 168 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 40c | 112.15$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.16 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Under | 40c | 106$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 394 | 35.8%141 W · 253 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 63c | 102.2$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.45 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbe…8807backed Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…5b51backed Under | 77c | 97.44$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 50c | 73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 60c | 64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…8092backed Over | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -8.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 29c | 58.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 287 | 21.6%62 W · 225 L | -29.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Over | 46c | 52.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 156 | 38.5%60 W · 96 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 37c | 52.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Under | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 61c | 42.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 60c | 39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 42c | 38.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 56c | 37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 270 | 58.9%159 W · 111 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Over | 60c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 184 | 56.5%104 W · 80 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 61c | 31.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3462…8d0cbacked Under | 33c | 30.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +205.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Over | 54c | 24.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 61c | 23.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 60c | 23.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 102 | 57.8%59 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…2540backed Over | 59c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 76c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 156 | 76.9%120 W · 36 L | +32.7wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Austin FC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 2.5this page
- Austin FC vs. Philadelphia Union: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Austin FC vs. Philadelphia Union: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Austin FC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 1.5Over won
- Austin FC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 3.5Under won
- Austin FC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 4.5Under won
- Austin FC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 5.5Under won
- Austin FC vs. Philadelphia Union: Philadelphia Union O/U 0.5Over won
- Austin FC vs. Philadelphia Union: Philadelphia Union O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Austin FC (-1.5)Philadelphia Union won
- Spread: Philadelphia Union (-1.5)Austin FC won
- Spread: Philadelphia Union (-2.5)Austin FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.