Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: RE.Arise (-1.5) vs Invision (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe483abb710a06ca1c3761cea976968fe249e3a401f6b77cb957ad130e621fddb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- RE.Ariseof RE.Arise, Invision
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,664
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,703
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,664 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3413…8ff2backed RE.Arise | 48c | 3,727$1,789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,937.82 | 476 | 46.4%221 W · 255 L | +27.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…e409backed RE.Arise | 54c | 1,693$922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.32 | 109 | 61.5%67 W · 42 L | +11.6wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa825…2ef0backed Invision | 52c | 1,453$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.77 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d3…bab9backed Invision | 45c | 999$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.55 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x955c…a075backed RE.Arise | 52c | 730.54$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf1…3018backed Invision | 46c | 428.21$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.41 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd02a…4771backed Invision | 52c | 358.65$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5e…7315backed Invision | 50c | 312.57$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.29 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Invision | 47c | 300$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 264 | 45.1%119 W · 145 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0b…2debbacked Invision | 52c | 292.31$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 195 | 47.7%93 W · 102 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa57e…ed54backed Invision | 52c | 211.66$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…5a3fbacked Invision | 52c | 160.19$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.3 | 268 | 43.7%117 W · 151 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd83…d102backed Invision | 52c | 132$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.64 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0188…afc3backed RE.Arise | 49c | 130$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.3 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5149…3336backed Invision | 46c | 118.04$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.3 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd22a…2a00backed Invision | 51c | 117.32$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.21 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Invision | 51c | 109.61$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.9 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 44cpaid | -66%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaaeb…9ec2backed Invision | 52c | 103.51$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.83 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef20…8f64backed Invision | 51c | 98.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85ae…5399backed Invision | 46c | 76.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.08 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbbac…1a1cbacked RE.Arise | 49c | 58.61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 62cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5540…9c18backed Invision | 52c | 58.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f83…3af9backed Invision | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d3…271dbacked Invision | 52c | 51.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed RE.Arise | 49c | 51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d98…1c46backed Invision | 49c | 44.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5f…2184backed Invision | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddc…9c0fbacked Invision | 51c | 29.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x58cc…6415backed Invision | 52c | 28.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe5…bca0backed Invision | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…ea66backed RE.Arise | 49c | 24.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed Invision | 52c | 23.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72a3…1753backed RE.Arise | 54c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: RE.Arise (-1.5) vs Invision (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: RE.Arise vs Invision (BO3) - European Pro League PlayoffsRE.Arise won
- Dota 2: RE.Arise vs Invision - Game 1 WinnerRE.Arise won
- Dota 2: RE.Arise vs Invision - Game 2 WinnerRE.Arise won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.