NHL · resolved market
KHL: Barys Astana vs. Amur Khabarovsk
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe493ecb5f4d20aa8522641466048e382e33a26f72cfb918ca60ce196b501116e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Amur Khabarovskof Barys Astana, Amur Khabarovsk
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,027
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,062
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,027 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2021…900cbacked Amur Khabarovsk | 45c | 1,302$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +75.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a0…24f9backed Amur Khabarovsk | 45c | 1,158$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x586c…7667backed Barys Astana | 55c | 1,137$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bad…ae5ebacked Barys Astana | 55c | 825$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x922d…29bbbacked Amur Khabarovsk | 45c | 775$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Barys Astana | 54c | 718.4$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.08 | 1,087 | 45.1%490 W · 597 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x624f…7592backed Amur Khabarovsk | 45c | 684$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x163d…8d30backed Barys Astana | 55c | 679$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.45 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79a6…3152backed Amur Khabarovsk | 45c | 672$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a9…4763backed Barys Astana | 55c | 568$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x911d…9886backed Barys Astana | 55c | 492$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d16…85f3backed Amur Khabarovsk | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.78 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x409f…7a48backed Amur Khabarovsk | 45c | 348$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9863…c3e0backed Barys Astana | 55c | 333$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 56cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a43…61d9backed Barys Astana | 55c | 283$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.65 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4c…be98backed Barys Astana | 55c | 180$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe813…0cbfbacked Barys Astana | 55c | 165$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x439f…69a5backed Barys Astana | 55c | 116$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -39%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…c7febacked Amur Khabarovsk | 49c | 113.12$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.53 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Amur Khabarovsk | 44c | 97.95$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.85 | 454 | 47.8%217 W · 237 L | -17.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa9…cf22backed Barys Astana | 55c | 96$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc879…30a4backed Amur Khabarovsk | 47c | 70.21$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.21 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad01…5d1fbacked Barys Astana | 55c | 65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Amur Khabarovsk | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 550 | 48.2%265 W · 285 L | -11.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Barys Astana | 53c | 24.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.