CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Heroic (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe49f59abe246fffce5773a193b02764fe7f2ddea556aceb161cc73f3ab31cbed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Astralisof Astralis, Heroic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,686
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,803
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,686 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6937…085dbacked Astralis | 58c | 25,260$14,733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,526.95 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…79f9backed Heroic | 43c | 10,495$4,513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,513.02 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -13.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa1…99ffbacked Heroic | 40c | 4,500$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -6.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d9…4d8bbacked Heroic | 43c | 3,163$1,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,360.09 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Heroic | 39c | 3,000$1,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,169.34 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Heroic | 53c | 2,600$1,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,365.27 | 180 | 51.1%92 W · 88 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeec…aa69backed Heroic | 49c | 2,413$1,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,177.73 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Heroic | 32c | 2,220$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 670 | 41.8%280 W · 390 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked Astralis | 50c | 2,116$1,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,047.66 | 836 | 52.5%439 W · 397 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Astralis | 59c | 2,054$1,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$842.1 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Astralis | 54c | 1,891$1,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873.74 | 273 | 45.8%125 W · 148 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Astralis | 50c | 1,668$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.55 | 613 | 38.2%234 W · 379 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96bc…7fb4backed Heroic | 42c | 1,200$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1568…c958backed Astralis | 62c | 1,063$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.16 | 279 | 50.2%140 W · 139 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4d…de5abacked Astralis | 60c | 1,049$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.94 | 244 | 40.6%99 W · 145 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd62b…86d0backed Astralis | 50c | 990.2$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Heroic | 41c | 800$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328 | 463 | 40.8%189 W · 274 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Heroic | 39c | 745.85$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.7 | 216 | 39.8%86 W · 130 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Astralis | 43c | 610.37$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.01 | 817 | 51.7%422 W · 395 L | -6.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Astralis | 60c | 600$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 283 | 51.9%147 W · 136 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Heroic | 30c | 599.56$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.33 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Heroic | 38c | 586.78$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.2 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe283…7190backed Heroic | 31c | 491.08$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 965 | 45.7%441 W · 524 L | +10.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6777…2612backed Heroic | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -11.3wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -23%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Astralis | 52c | 400$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ec…18f4backed Astralis | 57c | 350$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.5 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Astralis | 47c | 320$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.6 | 116 | 31.9%37 W · 79 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f78…68a4backed Heroic | 14c | 299.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 85 | 4.7%4 W · 81 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9823…02dbbacked Heroic | 54c | 259.95$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.07 | 470 | 55.7%262 W · 208 L | +27.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Heroic | 40c | 254.84$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.94 | 1,262 | 46.9%592 W · 670 L | -34.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc759…51edbacked Heroic | 49c | 203.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 88 | 42%37 W · 51 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x829f…3486backed Heroic | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Astralis | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 367 | 51%187 W · 180 L | -15.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89a8…c206backed Astralis | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 98 | 60.2%59 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…5bd1backed Heroic | 50c | 160$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Astralis | 60c | 151.35$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.54 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe53f…62d7backed Heroic | 59c | 127.98$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.51 | 426 | 38%162 W · 264 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Heroic | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 498 | 49.6%247 W · 251 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c96…f165backed Astralis | 57c | 99.12$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.62 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…9abdbacked Heroic | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…df90backed Astralis | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf66a…9157backed Astralis | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 102 | 38.2%39 W · 63 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed Heroic | 39c | 75.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked Astralis | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,393 | 65.9%918 W · 475 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…0055backed Heroic | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 178 | 47.8%85 W · 93 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3f…676cbacked Heroic | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 102 | 61.8%63 W · 39 L | +7.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd612…0bc1backed Astralis | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76f5…3382backed Heroic | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0c…2265backed Astralis | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 149 | 52.3%78 W · 71 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Heroic | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,181 | 22.5%266 W · 915 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e86…7932backed Astralis | 58c | 34.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 283 | 46.6%132 W · 151 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef35…c333backed Astralis | 55c | 21.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 87 | 65.5%57 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.