South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Sarmiento vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4e4f01dd94ce88ce767b6047d4888d27489aeae018c9d91dd2ea73dcbf896f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,921
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,779
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,921 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x67bf…f983backed Under | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 47c | 2,008$942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$942.07 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…bf4cbacked Under | 1c | 1,084$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 118 | 17.8%21 W · 97 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 53c | 709.88$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.6 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3824…e756backed Under | 59c | 332.49$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.17 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe337…4ad6backed Over | 77c | 319.2$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.3 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…9013backed Over | 64c | 120$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 185 | 43.2%80 W · 105 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 30c | 90.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 321 | 39.6%127 W · 194 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 70c | 90.93$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 517 | 50.7%262 W · 255 L | +28.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 28c | 85.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 50c | 77.75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc1…eebebacked Over | 52c | 72.52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.06 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 52c | 57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Over | 50c | 50.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc046…d8f0backed Under | 28c | 42.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39f9…fcc3backed Over | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -5.2wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 54c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Over | 70c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Sarmiento vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: O/U 1.5this page
- CA Sarmiento vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CA Sarmiento vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: O/U 2.5Under won
- CA Sarmiento vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA Sarmiento vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Estudiantes de La Plata (-1.5)CA Sarmiento won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.