South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Grêmio FBPA vs. EC Vitória end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4f13e6c051bf24d2e6980a5687234b43df676639264351a69c3711f41e933e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,828
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,828 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked Yes | 18c | 3,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 71c | 2,055$1,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.16 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 18c | 1,247$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.29 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 79c | 1,125$894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.74 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 74c | 711.72$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.05 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68b…7044backed Yes | 27c | 551.85$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 26c | 534.05$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.82 | 165 | 34.5%57 W · 108 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 23c | 466.33$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.34 | 282 | 31.6%89 W · 193 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Yes | 27c | 463.74$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.57 | 286 | 51.7%148 W · 138 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6278…d2a3backed No | 74c | 343.62$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d2…fb74backed Yes | 26c | 343.62$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47a5…6834backed Yes | 19c | 315.79$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa6…3e06backed Yes | 19c | 312.79$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed No | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 73c | 198.57$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.25 | 1,655 | 50.6%838 W · 817 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 6c | 181.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 271 | 33.9%92 W · 179 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7030…195ebacked Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 26c | 146.15$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e7c…0df6backed No | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 73c | 121.09$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.69 | 3,407 | 51.3%1,749 W · 1,658 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 26c | 115.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 27c | 106.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Yes | 19c | 106$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 73c | 97.47$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 92.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d1…22d0backed Yes | 19c | 81.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe2…5981backed No | 73c | 72.31$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f50…fc3fbacked Yes | 26c | 65.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x452f…b277backed Yes | 28c | 64.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 27c | 45.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c98…7255backed No | 72c | 41.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 66cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cd…e951backed No | 70c | 35.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 74c | 30.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 74c | 20.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Grêmio FBPA vs. EC Vitória end in a draw?this page
- Will EC Vitória win on 2026-03-19?No won
- Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-03-19?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.