Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Minaur (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4f7fe584e43d93e6b1ce2cdd46957486cd8578b8ca23d32258e9ba2e527b20f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minaurof Auger-Aliassime, Minaur
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,590
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,054
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,590 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa02b…70d6backed Auger-Aliassime | 7c | 883.62$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.85 | 174 | 62.6%109 W · 65 L | +34.2wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…9daabacked Auger-Aliassime | 37c | 878$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.86 | 142 | 43%61 W · 81 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…fd02backed Minaur | 62c | 401.78$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.78 | 389 | 51.9%202 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Minaur | 67c | 295.04$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.29 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Minaur | 60c | 202.03$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.81 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Auger-Aliassime | 7c | 158.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1424…4f78backed Auger-Aliassime | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb906…2a75backed Minaur | 59c | 122.54$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.24 | 407 | 44%179 W · 228 L | -14.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Auger-Aliassime | 35c | 75.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfe…5247backed Minaur | 65c | 70.38$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Minaur | 59c | 55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…7696backed Auger-Aliassime | 40c | 49.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 437 | 49%214 W · 223 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…ecbfbacked Minaur | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…7272backed Auger-Aliassime | 41c | 36.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 92 | 63%58 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Auger-Aliassime | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe519…4cbebacked Minaur | 63c | 17.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 40 | 72.5%29 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Minaur (+1.5)this page
- Minaur vs. Auger-Aliassime: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Minaur vs. Auger-Aliassime: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Minaur vs. Auger-Aliassime: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Minaur vs. Auger-Aliassime: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Minaur vs. Auger-Aliassime: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Minaur vs. Auger-Aliassime: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Rotterdam Open: Alex de Minaur vs Felix Auger-AliassimeMinaur won
- Set 1 Winner: Minaur vs Auger-AliassimeMinaur won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.