AI · resolved market
Will "Polymarket" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5251e8c448f793fd0a7cf59e5d11e35f1cf11f370634092ee44870082286329
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $847
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $837
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $847 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 8 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x54fd…4ac3backed Yes | 68c | 256.22$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.49 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbddd…3d9abacked No | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49ff…b00abacked Yes | 65c | 72.86$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb37f…fdcfbacked No | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb91d…d2ddbacked No | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…d98abacked No | 33c | 36.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7169…3ca6backed No | 37c | 34.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Polymarket" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?this page
- Will "AI" be said 15+ times during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Yes won
- Will "Alignment" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?No won
- Will "China" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Yes won
- Will "Construction" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?No won
- Will "Data Center" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Yes won
- Will "Google" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Yes won
- Will "Mark Zuckerberg" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?No won
- Will "Open Source" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Yes won
- Will "Regulatory" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Yes won
- Will "Safety" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Yes won
- Will "Silicon Valley" be said 2+ times during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Yes won
- Will "Software" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Yes won
- Will "Trump" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Yes won
- Will "Winner" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.