Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks vs. Fresno State Bulldogs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe52915b98835bf33a2225a8d6bd1e896893eb546256798d6bc8728abc381d778
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fresno State Bulldogsof Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks, Fresno State Bulldogs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,879
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,661
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,879 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Fresno State Bulldogs | 29c | 4,148$1,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,931.38 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 73c | 4,027$2,955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,954.62 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 42c | 2,175$904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,271.34 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Fresno State Bulldogs | 35c | 1,843$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,199.56 | 1,540 | 41.3%636 W · 904 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x685d…22d6backed Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 59c | 1,350$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795.3 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 65c | 921.96$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.21 | 556 | 57.4%319 W · 237 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Fresno State Bulldogs | 42c | 883.32$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.01 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 41c | 730.04$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.85 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4635…9f6fbacked Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 59c | 673.24$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 65c | 554.26$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.54 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 39c | 354.1$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…3e3dbacked Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 77c | 348.97$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.21 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 57c | 332.17$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.34 | 369 | 44.2%163 W · 206 L | -19.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 23c | 300$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231 | 76 | 26.3%20 W · 56 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5384…9d80backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 43c | 272.09$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.09 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 60c | 180$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.36 | 1,420 | 43.9%623 W · 797 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 29c | 177.34$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.12 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…cfadbacked Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 70c | 164.35$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.58 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd64…cbeebacked Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 70c | 143.92$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.9 | 456 | 44.5%203 W · 253 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x165d…79c6backed Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 76c | 141.31$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.86 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -37%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 73c | 115.29$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.04 | 1,173 | 25.2%296 W · 877 L | -43.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…361bbacked Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 69c | 87.22$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 98 | 21.4%21 W · 77 L | -17.7wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2382…4628backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 38c | 61.37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.05 | 140 | 35%49 W · 91 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…f4f4backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 31c | 44.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.63 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd52…bbccbacked Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 69c | 43.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.31per pick | 61cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x41d4…69d5backed Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 61c | 41.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d3…3d7abacked Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 74c | 39.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebfa…1d5ebacked Fresno State Bulldogs | 43c | 37.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +134%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe72c…2fe8backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 43c | 33.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +133.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 59c | 33.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x686a…c769backed Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81d8…2b8dbacked Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 59c | 31.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 68c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 63 | 73%46 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x297c…1ae4backed Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 61c | 29.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 57c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 80 | 7.5%6 W · 74 L | -10.9wins | -0.14per pick | 21cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3458…b5a7backed Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8a…b155backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 72c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2734…22efbacked Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 72c | 18.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | 61c | 17.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.