Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on March 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe54fc4e3cb79850d527f73cd3765b67b3e2033b89c57e5f3a97629df03027917
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,288
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,493
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,288 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f8d…4adbbacked No | 40c | 2,875$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,149.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a47…9601backed Yes | 60c | 2,875$1,725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,149.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…9f20backed Yes | 70c | 2,781$1,936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$844.52 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked No | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +20.1wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 10c | 814.52$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.95 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…94bcbacked No | 18c | 482.18$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.58 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed No | 13c | 476.68$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.09 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 77c | 463.58$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.55 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 80c | 445.46$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.94 | 259 | 47.5%123 W · 136 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x622f…e730backed No | 21c | 399.99$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 186 | 40.3%75 W · 111 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 71c | 211.46$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.69 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 72c | 187.58$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.94 | 191 | 26.2%50 W · 141 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked Yes | 70c | 143.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.36 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | -14.8wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked Yes | 62c | 94.3$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…fd40backed No | 35c | 89.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…cbc2backed Yes | 60c | 83.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…09ebbacked Yes | 73c | 78.5$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 68c | 63$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc40f…88fcbacked Yes | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4b…2998backed No | 39c | 51.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c4…9434backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 174 | 24.1%42 W · 132 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +153.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b27…cf29backed No | 39c | 40.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…5fd4backed Yes | 79c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 41c | 39.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -7.3wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -36%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 34c | 31.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…92c0backed No | 42c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6564…fef5backed Yes | 71c | 21.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on March 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 43-44°F on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on March 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.