Tennis · resolved market
Ningbo Open: Karolina Muchova vs Diana Shnaider
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5debcd621721eae934a1aae87313bc66c7f91cb9462c19e00a4bbe283daf23b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Shnaiderof Muchova, Shnaider
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,797
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,820
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,797 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Muchova | 42c | 14,455$6,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,076.42 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Shnaider | 61c | 8,878$5,379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,499.17 | 245 | 44.9%110 W · 135 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Muchova | 58c | 4,358$2,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,536.22 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Shnaider | 47c | 4,051$1,924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,127.05 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Shnaider | 48c | 2,574$1,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,341.59 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Shnaider | 28c | 2,359$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,696.34 | 170 | 46.5%79 W · 91 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Shnaider | 43c | 2,089$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,199.4 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Muchova | 71c | 1,770$1,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,265.69 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…3b99backed Muchova | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Muchova | 41c | 789.28$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.49 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Shnaider | 29c | 685$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.35 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacdf…0ec4backed Muchova | 79c | 609.23$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.63 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Muchova | 63c | 370.9$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.58 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked Muchova | 17c | 343.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 174 | 42.5%74 W · 100 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Shnaider | 28c | 327.43$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.75 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Shnaider | 30c | 326$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.2 | 139 | 35.3%49 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Muchova | 65c | 286.94$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.46 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Shnaider | 72c | 277.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Shnaider | 73c | 203$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.64 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Muchova | 60c | 201.5$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.54 | 248 | 46%114 W · 134 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Shnaider | 31c | 149.65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.23 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Shnaider | 16c | 65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1d…f1a8backed Shnaider | 30c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Shnaider | 30c | 51.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2db8…e042backed Shnaider | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 749 | 61.8%463 W · 286 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3149…9762backed Shnaider | 32c | 34.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Muchova | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 128 | 52.3%67 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c3…079fbacked Muchova | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 893 | 64.4%575 W · 318 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.