Tennis · resolved market
French Open: Monfils vs. Draper
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5fcbe154910b14966938319c70bb06f59a000a8c2a6c35a5e101b4970ae0966
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Draperof Monfils, Draper
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,671
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,944
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,671 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x433f…a0dcbacked Monfils | 3c | 6,505$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.37 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Monfils | 6c | 3,739$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.7 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe190…a627backed Monfils | 10c | 1,928$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbedb…8687backed Monfils | 26c | 1,918$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Monfils | 14c | 1,477$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.71 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Monfils | 9c | 1,214$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.49 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Monfils | 14c | 1,199$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.93 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Monfils | 28c | 940.05$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.11 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Draper | 76c | 854.3$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.04 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8806…6a9bbacked Monfils | 5c | 681.05$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Monfils | 10c | 518.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa19…fb67backed Monfils | 13c | 251.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.03 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf95a…d895backed Draper | 72c | 140.05$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.21 | 189 | 32.3%61 W · 128 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Monfils | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Monfils | 15c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.