Asian League · resolved market
FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Kawasaki Frontale: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe607f2356c093afe7b7141c9e6edecb07754130772555ba2b0450a0a5930d52c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,169
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,545
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,169 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Under | 27c | 2,235$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.89 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae06…c8c8backed Over | 54c | 1,854$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$853.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 46c | 1,024$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.12 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 51c | 909.84$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.74 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de5…8524backed Over | 78c | 734.06$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e2…d3abbacked Under | 22c | 454.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 68 | 19.1%13 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…2e83backed Under | 57c | 438.6$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +8.6wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 48c | 414.59$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.2 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0def…4ddbbacked Over | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Under | 4c | 262.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Under | 50c | 260$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 45c | 171.65$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.63 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Under | 21c | 165.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 150 | 68%102 W · 48 L | +16.7wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 34c | 150.46$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.44 | 207 | 69.6%144 W · 63 L | +31.9wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 24c | 148.21$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 93 | 29%27 W · 66 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7da4…f0a4backed Under | 12c | 143.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Over | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 134 | 63.4%85 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 76c | 133.21$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 57c | 120.22$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.65 | 892 | 45%401 W · 491 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked Under | 21c | 94.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 49c | 87.77$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.17 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x259b…a2d3backed Under | 30c | 80.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 32c | 66.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…1ea8backed Under | 43c | 58.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2116…eb8fbacked Over | 25c | 57.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.05 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.17per pick | 20cpaid | +100.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Over | 65c | 55.26$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd840…1ec6backed Over | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe68b…dc9ebacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 68c | 39.88$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 770 | 56.2%433 W · 337 L | +40.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 53c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 304 | 64.8%197 W · 107 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked Over | 34c | 33.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +5.5wins | +0.26per pick | 36cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Under | 67c | 25.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 257 | 42%108 W · 149 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb435…b97cbacked Over | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +5.0wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1a97…90b1backed Over | 69c | 16.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Over | 66c | 15.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…e29bbacked Over | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Kawasaki Frontale: O/U 1.5this page
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Kawasaki Frontale: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Kawasaki Frontale: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Kawasaki Frontale: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Kawasaki Frontale: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Mito Holly Hock (-1.5)Kawasaki Frontale won
- Spread: Kawasaki Frontale (-1.5)Kawasaki Frontale won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.