Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Syria on Saturday August 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6bbe72ddc0e7a76e8aad45989569c7d189bbda73a36707b98a56c6b6a027862
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,168
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,851
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,168 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 3,754$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 12c | 1,142$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.52 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 7c | 1,138$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.63 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 15c | 628.11$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.01 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 14c | 485.57$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 16c | 322.18$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.59 | 125 | 24.8%31 W · 94 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes | 4c | 309.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…2697backed Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…e31bbacked Yes | 4c | 246.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9d…69fbbacked Yes | 10c | 180$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x850e…d172backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0417…ddecbacked Yes | 18c | 96.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 59 | 27.1%16 W · 43 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5caf…5470backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Syria on Saturday August 30?this page
- Will Israel strike Syria on Friday August 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Syria on Monday September 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Syria on Sunday August 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Syria on Tuesday September 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.