Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Syria on Friday August 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0108a3e64d3fc1a1c8f63332b6d4d666ff00f11d735bd980912086fbb469f8cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,398
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,160
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,398 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5caf…5470backed Yes | 1c | 3,981$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x656e…65d2backed Yes | 4c | 1,507$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.14 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 2c | 730$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 12c | 440$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.95 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3c…9657backed Yes | 6c | 422.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed Yes | 7c | 305$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dd…c8a5backed Yes | 3c | 301.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…2697backed Yes | 17c | 300.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 7c | 238.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 6c | 215$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes | 15c | 133.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 9c | 122.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 87 | 21.8%19 W · 68 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0417…ddecbacked Yes | 15c | 79.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 14c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 195 | 34.4%67 W · 128 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 15c | 72.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa591…9079backed No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 69 | 65.2%45 W · 24 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…7d33backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…7690backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe409…aa26backed No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -43%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3789…a703backed No | 79c | 31.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed No | 52c | 20.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Syria on Friday August 29?this page
- Will Israel strike Syria on Monday September 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Syria on Saturday August 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Syria on Sunday August 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Syria on Tuesday September 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.