Bundesliga · resolved market
SV 07 Elversberg vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6dfdbe9eb660ff16aeea1f3c43c39e251458de62d42f27ea66195b2686e4393
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,447
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,447 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8735…41bbbacked Under | 9c | 609.97$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 18c | 377.8$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f03…0f1dbacked Under | 20c | 277.82$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc405…0764backed Over | 80c | 277.82$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 79c | 231.83$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.97 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x270b…1021backed Over | 76c | 211.95$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba7b…b949backed Under | 24c | 211.95$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba7e…5f27backed Under | 22c | 174.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a6b…345dbacked Over | 78c | 174.7$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…15eebacked Under | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed Over | 80c | 94.32$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 21c | 81.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 76c | 80.65$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e08…19cabacked Over | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe2…5981backed Under | 19c | 55.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 30c | 50.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 147 | 34.7%51 W · 96 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d6…fa72backed Over | 64c | 46.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e32…449bbacked Under | 29c | 45.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aec…6e19backed Over | 75c | 23.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…e29bbacked Over | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbec3…760ebacked Over | 75c | 17.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 1.5this page
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 2.5Over won
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 3.5Over won
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: DSC Arminia Bielefeld (-1.5)SV 07 Elversberg won
- Spread: SV 07 Elversberg (-1.5)SV 07 Elversberg won
- Spread: SV 07 Elversberg (-2.5)DSC Arminia Bielefeld won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.