Bundesliga · resolved market
SV 07 Elversberg vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x522d859f8245966d48052a0fcb19f65997137cd3bf59070523bc6fbd66e93ef5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,693
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,693 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 49c | 4,122$2,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,118.28 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 72c | 1,887$1,367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,367.14 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x036c…178dbacked Under | 64c | 1,513$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968.43 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8735…41bbbacked Under | 8c | 599.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc94c…ba65backed Under | 9c | 599.97$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +118.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 36c | 500$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 36c | 438.43$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.6 | 147 | 34.7%51 W · 96 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Under | 65c | 397.45$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.34 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 72c | 279.07$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.63 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1473…42c2backed Under | 65c | 246.15$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Under | 7c | 217.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 69c | 187.2$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.29 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba6c…20e3backed Under | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 36c | 137$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.68 | 118 | 57.6%68 W · 50 L | +15.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 35c | 122.43$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.58 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 36c | 111.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.11 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 35c | 93.47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.83 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Over | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe2…5981backed Over | 35c | 60.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.01 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -9.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 50c | 40.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf15…bc03backed Under | 74c | 36.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72b5…8b54backed Under | 65c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 30c | 34.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf17e…c12ebacked Under | 65c | 27.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Over | 71c | 23.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 160 | 60.6%97 W · 63 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 3.5this page
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 1.5Over won
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 2.5Over won
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: DSC Arminia Bielefeld (-1.5)SV 07 Elversberg won
- Spread: SV 07 Elversberg (-1.5)SV 07 Elversberg won
- Spread: SV 07 Elversberg (-2.5)DSC Arminia Bielefeld won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.